In a dramatic shift atop the cryptocurrency hierarchy, XRP has flipped Binance Coin (BNB) to reclaim its position as the fourth-largest digital asset by market capitalization. The milestone, reached over the weekend as XRP touched $2.06, marks a significant moment for Ripple's native token—and potentially signals a broader institutional embrace of the once-embattled cryptocurrency.

The Numbers Behind the Surge

XRP's market capitalization surged past $124 billion on Saturday, January 4, 2026, as trading volume exploded nearly 180% to approach $4 billion in a single 24-hour period. The token has gained approximately 9% over the past day alone, with weekly gains exceeding 7%.

But the rally isn't merely speculative fervor. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds, which launched in November 2025 following regulatory clarity from the Securities and Exchange Commission, have attracted roughly $1.18 billion in net inflows since their debut. On January 2 alone, these ETFs recorded $13.59 million in fresh capital—extending a winning streak that has lasted for weeks.

"The supply dynamics tell the real story. Supply held on trading venues has fallen to roughly 1.6 billion XRP, down about 57% since October."

— On-chain analytics data

This dramatic reduction in exchange-held tokens suggests that investors are moving their XRP into longer-term storage or custody arrangements rather than positioning for quick sales—a classically bullish signal.

What's Driving the Move?

Several factors have converged to propel XRP's resurgence:

1. Regulatory Clarity

The departure of SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw and the installation of a more crypto-friendly regulatory regime has fundamentally altered the landscape for Ripple. After years of legal uncertainty following the SEC's December 2020 lawsuit, XRP now operates with clearer guidelines—and Wall Street has taken notice.

2. Institutional Infrastructure

The approval of spot XRP ETFs provided traditional investors with a regulated, familiar vehicle to gain exposure. Unlike the cumbersome process of setting up cryptocurrency wallets and navigating exchanges, ETFs offer the simplicity of buying any other stock.

3. Technical Breakout

XRP has broken cleanly above the psychologically important $2 threshold, with the token maintaining higher lows on short-term timeframes and showing no relative weakness versus Bitcoin. Technical analysts note that even with this strong bounce, XRP remains well below its July 2025 high of $3.68—suggesting the current move is part of a recovery phase rather than a market top.

Standard Chartered's Bold Prediction

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, has staked out an ambitious target: $8 per XRP by year-end 2026. His thesis rests on two pillars—continued regulatory clarity and the momentum effects of spot ETF adoption.

If Kendrick's target proves accurate, it would represent roughly a 300% gain from current levels and vault XRP's market capitalization well past $400 billion.

The Bull Case

  • ETF flows accelerating: With Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs having paved the way, XRP ETFs are benefiting from established distribution networks
  • Cross-border payment adoption: Ripple's enterprise solutions continue gaining traction with financial institutions globally
  • Supply constraints: The 57% reduction in exchange supply creates natural scarcity

The Bear Case

  • Valuation concerns: At $124 billion, XRP trades at a significant premium to many traditional financial companies
  • Competition: Stablecoins and CBDCs continue to encroach on Ripple's cross-border payment use case
  • Macro headwinds: Any risk-off environment could hit speculative assets disproportionately

What This Means for the Crypto Hierarchy

XRP's ascension past BNB reshuffles the top of the cryptocurrency rankings. Bitcoin remains the undisputed leader at approximately $1.7 trillion in market capitalization, followed by Ethereum at roughly $380 billion. Tether's USDT stablecoin holds third place, with XRP now fourth.

The flip also highlights the diverging fortunes of exchange tokens like BNB. While Binance's native coin enjoyed a strong 2025, regulatory pressures on centralized exchanges have weighed on sentiment. XRP's regulatory victories, by contrast, have transformed it from a pariah into an institutional favorite.

The Week Ahead

Cryptocurrency markets will be watching several key developments:

  • ETF flow data: Continued inflows could push XRP toward its 2025 highs
  • Bitcoin correlation: XRP has shown relative strength versus BTC, but a broader crypto pullback could test support
  • Technical levels: $2.20 represents the next resistance, with $1.80 serving as key support

For investors who watched from the sidelines during XRP's years-long legal battle, the token's return to prominence offers a reminder that cryptocurrency markets can shift rapidly—and that regulatory outcomes matter more than many technicals.

The question now is whether XRP can sustain its momentum as 2026 unfolds, or whether the ETF-driven rally will fade as quickly as it emerged.