Something unusual is happening on Wall Street: everyone agrees. For the first time in years, all 21 major strategists surveyed by Bloomberg predict the S&P 500 will rise in 2026, setting the stage for what would be a fourth consecutive year of gains—the longest winning streak since the market rallied from 2003 to 2007.

The average year-end target of 7,555 implies approximately 9% upside from current levels, with forecasts ranging from a conservative 7,000 at the low end to an optimistic 8,100 at the high end. Not a single prognosticator is calling for a decline.

The Bull Case

Goldman Sachs, projecting a year-end target of 7,600 with a 12% total return, points to continued earnings growth as the primary driver. The firm expects S&P 500 earnings per share to increase 12% in 2026, followed by another 10% gain in 2027.

"The US is set to remain the world's growth engine, driven by a resilient economy and an AI-driven supercycle that is fueling record capex and rapid earnings expansion."

— JPMorgan Chase Equity Research

JPMorgan Chase, with a target of 7,500, emphasizes the transformative impact of artificial intelligence on corporate investment. The bank notes that eight out of the S&P 500's eleven sectors have 2026 expected growth rates higher than last year's, suggesting the bull market is becoming more broad-based.

The Most Bullish View

Oppenheimer tops the bullish rankings with an 8,100 target, implying approximately 15% gains. The firm's analysts argue that investors remain under-allocated to equities and that the combination of Fed rate cuts, strong corporate balance sheets, and continued AI investment will drive valuations higher.

Fund manager Louis Navellier offers an even more aggressive prediction, forecasting that GDP will grow at an annual rate of 5% and the S&P 500 will return 20% or more in 2026. While his view represents an outlier, it reflects the extreme optimism that has taken hold in some corners of the market.

The Valuation Concern

Not all the bulls are comfortable with current prices. Bank of America, despite predicting a year-end target of 7,100, acknowledges that stock market valuations are elevated. The S&P 500 currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 22x, matching the peak multiple reached in 2021 and approaching the record 24x multiple from 2000.

Charles Schwab's outlook notes that while the fundamental backdrop supports further gains, "the margin for error has shrunk considerably. Expensive stocks require execution, and any disappointments will be punished severely."

Historical Warning Signs

The unanimous bullishness itself may be cause for concern. Historically, extreme consensus among Wall Street strategists has occasionally preceded periods of underperformance, as the "crowded trade" dynamic leaves fewer new buyers to push prices higher.

The S&P 500 has produced four consecutive annual gains only twice since 2000: from 2003 to 2007 (which ended with the financial crisis) and from 2012 to 2017. The rarity of such streaks suggests that sustaining the current bull run will require continued economic expansion and stable policy conditions.

Key Risks to the Consensus

Despite the optimistic outlook, strategists acknowledge several risks that could derail the predicted rally:

  • Inflation persistence: If inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, rate cuts could be delayed or reversed, pressuring equity valuations.
  • Fed chair transition: The change in Federal Reserve leadership in May introduces uncertainty about the future direction of monetary policy.
  • Geopolitical tensions: Ongoing conflicts and trade disputes could disrupt global supply chains and economic growth.
  • Midterm elections: The 2026 midterms historically coincide with above-average market volatility, with the S&P 500 experiencing an average peak-to-trough decline of 17.5% during midterm years since 1950.

What It Means for Investors

The Wall Street consensus provides a useful baseline for portfolio planning, but investors should remember that strategist predictions have a mixed track record. Last year's forecasts significantly underestimated the market's gains, while previous years have seen predictions overshoot reality.

For long-term investors, the more relevant question is whether the underlying drivers of equity returns—corporate earnings growth, economic expansion, and reasonable interest rates—remain intact. On those measures, the fundamental case for owning stocks remains compelling, even if the path to further gains proves bumpier than the consensus suggests.