Something remarkable has happened on Wall Street: everyone agrees. In a survey of 21 major strategists conducted by Bloomberg News, not a single one is predicting the S&P 500 will decline in 2026. It's the first time in nearly two decades that the investment community has achieved such complete consensus—and the uniformity has some veteran investors worried.

The Bulls Have the Floor

From JPMorgan to Goldman Sachs, from Bank of America to Morgan Stanley, the message is the same: buy stocks. The average year-end target for the S&P 500 implies another 9% gain for 2026, which would extend the current bull market into a fourth consecutive year—the longest winning streak since 2004.

The gap between the most bullish and most bearish forecasts has narrowed to just 16%, according to Bloomberg data. Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus sits at the top with an 8,100 target, while Stifel's Barry Bannister occupies the bottom at 7,000. Even the "bear" is predicting a rally.

"At the big banks and the boutique investment shops, an optimistic consensus has taken hold: the US stock market will rally in 2026 for a fourth straight year."

— Bloomberg Markets Research

The Case for Continued Gains

The bulls point to a compelling list of supporting factors:

  • Earnings Growth: S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 14.9% in 2026, up from 12.4% in 2025
  • AI Tailwinds: Continued investment in artificial intelligence is boosting productivity and corporate margins
  • Lower Interest Rates: The Fed is expected to cut rates further in 2026, providing support for valuations
  • Economic Resilience: GDP growth is projected at 2.2-2.6%, above historical averages
  • Fiscal Stimulus: Tax provisions from recent legislation should boost consumer spending

Goldman Sachs summarized the bull case succinctly: "Healthy economic and revenue growth, continued profit strength among the largest US stocks, and an emerging productivity boost from artificial intelligence adoption should lift US stock earnings."

Why the Unanimity Is Concerning

But here's the paradox: when everyone agrees on anything in markets, it often signals trouble ahead. Such lockstep views are generally considered a contrarian indicator—when everyone's leaning the same way, the imbalance often corrects itself.

"The unanimity and the clustering of outlooks is concerning to me. If everyone is expecting the same thing, then by definition, it's already priced into the market."

— Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist, Interactive Brokers

Even the bulls acknowledge the dissonance. Ed Yardeni, a perennial optimist who expects the S&P 500 to end 2026 near 7,700, admits that the lack of dissent gives him pause. "When pessimism disappears entirely, that's when my contrarian instincts kick in," he said.

The Risks Everyone Sees But Few Are Pricing

The consensus optimism comes despite visible risks that would normally divide opinion:

  • Elevated Valuations: The S&P 500 trades at a forward P/E of 22x, matching the 2021 peak and approaching the record 24x multiple from 2000
  • Fed Uncertainty: The DOJ investigation into Chair Powell has created unprecedented uncertainty about monetary policy
  • Trade Tensions: Potential tariff wars with Europe and ongoing USMCA disputes could disrupt global commerce
  • Credit Market Stress: Rising delinquencies and the proposed credit card rate cap could trigger financial sector volatility
  • Government Deficits: Persistently large deficits could push long-term borrowing costs higher

Bank of America's Savita Subramanian offered perhaps the most balanced perspective, noting that a recession could send stocks tumbling 20%, while significantly higher-than-expected earnings could push them up 25%. The range of outcomes, she suggested, is wider than the clustering of forecasts implies.

What History Says About Unanimous Bulls

The last time Wall Street achieved anything close to this level of consensus was late 1999, just before the dot-com bubble burst. While 2026 isn't a perfect parallel—today's mega-cap tech companies have actual earnings, unlike many of their Y2K predecessors—the comparison makes some investors nervous.

More recently, heading into 2022, strategists were uniformly bullish, only to watch the S&P 500 decline 18% that year. The consensus view proved spectacularly wrong.

The Bottom Line for Investors

Wall Street's unanimous optimism doesn't mean stocks will fall in 2026. Markets can stay irrational—or in this case, rationally bullish—longer than skeptics expect. The fundamentals supporting the rally are real, and corporate earnings growth may indeed deliver the gains strategists project.

But prudent investors should treat the consensus with healthy skepticism. When everyone is positioned for the same outcome, the market has a way of delivering surprises. Portfolio diversification, reasonable position sizing, and a willingness to take profits on strength may prove wiser than chasing the herd into year four of a historic bull run.

As the old Wall Street adage goes: "When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."