The wait is almost over. Starting January 13, America's largest banks will begin reporting fourth-quarter earnings in what promises to be one of the most consequential weeks of the 2026 financial calendar. The results will offer the clearest picture yet of how the banking sector is navigating an environment of elevated rates, economic uncertainty, and transformational change.

The Earnings Schedule

Mark your calendars:

  • January 13 (Tuesday): JPMorgan Chase — 7:00 AM ET release, 8:30 AM ET conference call
  • January 14 (Wednesday): Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America
  • January 15 (Thursday): Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley

The staggered release schedule means investors will spend three days parsing results and adjusting positions. Traditionally, JPMorgan sets the tone—CEO Jamie Dimon's commentary on the economy and credit quality often moves the entire financial sector.

What Analysts Expect

JPMorgan Chase

The nation's largest bank is expected to report earnings growth of approximately 10% year-over-year, according to LSEG data. Analysts will focus on:

  • Net interest income: Whether the bank can maintain margins as rates potentially decline
  • Trading revenues: Investment banking activity picked up significantly in Q4
  • Credit trends: Any signs of stress in consumer credit cards or commercial lending

Goldman Sachs

For fiscal 2025, analysts expect Goldman Sachs to report earnings of $48.96 per share, up 20.8% from the prior year. The 2026 outlook is even brighter, with EPS expected to grow another 12.6% to $55.15.

Goldman's results typically beat expectations—the bank has exceeded consensus 86% of the time, according to Bespoke Investment Group. Key areas to watch include:

  • Trading revenue: Volatility and market swings typically benefit Goldman's trading desks
  • Advisory fees: M&A activity rebounded in late 2025
  • Asset management: The growth of alternatives continues to reshape revenue mix

The Macro Backdrop

Banks enter earnings season with significant tailwinds—and some notable headwinds:

Tailwinds:

  • Higher long-term yields: The steeper yield curve boosts net interest margins
  • Trading activity: Market volatility created opportunities for trading desks
  • Investment banking revival: IPO and M&A activity picked up after years of drought
  • Regulatory optimism: The Trump administration signals lighter bank oversight

Headwinds:

  • Credit deterioration: Consumer delinquencies have ticked higher
  • Economic uncertainty: The jobs report on January 9 could reveal labor market weakness
  • Tariff impact: Trade policy uncertainty affects corporate clients
  • Commercial real estate: Office vacancies remain elevated

"For investment banks like Goldman, swings in markets can translate into more client activity in trading and hedging. Higher long-term yields also boost net interest margin."

— Wall Street analyst note

Credit Quality: The Elephant in the Room

Perhaps no single metric will receive more scrutiny than credit quality. As the economic expansion matures and unemployment potentially rises, investors want to know: are consumers still paying their bills?

Credit card delinquencies have been creeping higher across the industry, though they remain below historical averages. The question is whether current trends reflect normalization from pandemic-era lows or the beginning of a more concerning deterioration.

Corporate credit quality is also in focus, particularly for commercial real estate loans. Office vacancy rates remain stubbornly high in many markets, and some loans made during the low-rate era are coming due at significantly higher refinancing costs.

Stock Performance Heading into Earnings

Bank stocks have performed well in early 2026:

  • JPMorgan: Closed higher on the first trading day of 2026
  • Goldman Sachs: Jumped 4% to start the year as investors anticipated strong results
  • Regional banks: Outperformed as rotation into value stocks accelerated

The strong performance means expectations are elevated, raising the bar for companies to deliver upside surprises.

What to Listen For

Beyond the numbers, management commentary will be crucial. Investors should listen for:

  • 2026 guidance: Particularly on net interest income and expense management
  • Credit outlook: How management views consumer and corporate health
  • Capital return plans: Dividend increases and buyback authorization
  • Economic views: Especially Jamie Dimon's annual economic assessment
  • Tariff impact: How trade policy is affecting corporate clients

The Investment Implications

Bank earnings season often sets the tone for the broader market. Strong results and optimistic guidance could reinforce the bullish consensus for 2026. Disappointing numbers or cautious commentary could trigger a reassessment of economic assumptions.

For bank stock investors specifically, the key question is whether current valuations—which have already risen significantly—leave room for further upside. With financials trading near multi-year highs, the bar for positive surprises is high.

The three-day earnings marathon beginning January 13 will provide answers. Until then, investors are positioning for what could be the defining week for bank stocks in 2026.