The artificial intelligence infrastructure trade roared back to life on the first trading day of 2026, and no company embodied the renewed optimism more than Vertiv Holdings. Shares of the data center power and cooling specialist surged 8.5% after Barclays upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal-Weight, setting a $200 price target that implies significant upside from recent trading levels.

Why Barclays Is Betting Big on Vertiv

The upgrade wasn't merely a case of catching a falling knife. Barclays analysts laid out a compelling thesis centered on Vertiv's unmatched exposure to data center spending—the very infrastructure that powers the AI revolution transforming global business.

"Vertiv derives approximately 80% of its revenue from data centers, the highest level among U.S. multi-industry companies in our coverage," the Barclays research team wrote in their client note. "This positions the company as a pure-play beneficiary of accelerating AI infrastructure investment."

The timing of the upgrade proved strategic. Vertiv shares had retreated meaningfully from their all-time high of $202.45 set earlier in 2025, creating what Barclays characterized as an "attractive entry point" for investors who had been watching from the sidelines.

The Numbers That Caught Wall Street's Attention

Barclays didn't stop at qualitative analysis. The firm's earnings estimates now sit materially above consensus expectations, suggesting the Street may be underestimating Vertiv's earnings power:

  • 2025 adjusted EPS estimate: $4.16 vs. consensus of $4.08
  • 2026 adjusted EPS estimate: $5.68 vs. consensus of $5.24 (8% above)
  • 2027 adjusted EPS estimate: 12% above current Street expectations

These elevated projections stem largely from Barclays' more bullish revenue assumptions. As hyperscale cloud providers and enterprise customers race to build AI-capable data centers, demand for Vertiv's thermal management systems, power distribution units, and infrastructure software continues to accelerate.

S&P 500 Inclusion: The Catalyst No One Is Discussing

Perhaps the most intriguing element of the Vertiv bull case is one that received limited attention in the upgrade itself: the growing expectation that the company could be added to the S&P 500 index in the first quarter of 2026.

S&P 500 inclusion typically triggers substantial buying from index funds and ETFs that track the benchmark, often creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of higher prices. For a stock like Vertiv—which has delivered outsized returns but remains outside the index—inclusion could unlock a new wave of institutional demand.

Goldman Sachs and Citi have also recently increased their price targets on Vertiv, adding to the chorus of Wall Street voices growing more constructive on the name.

The Broader Data Center Thesis

Vertiv's surge arrives at a pivotal moment for the data center infrastructure sector. As AI workloads demand exponentially more computing power—and the electricity and cooling systems to support it—companies positioned at the intersection of power management and thermal solutions have become essential picks for investors seeking AI exposure beyond the semiconductor giants.

The numbers are staggering. Industry analysts project that data centers could consume 8.6% of U.S. electricity by 2035, up from less than 3% today. This explosion in power demand directly benefits companies like Vertiv that specialize in making data centers more efficient and reliable.

"The AI infrastructure buildout is still in its early innings, and Vertiv is positioned as an indispensable supplier to every major cloud provider and enterprise data center operator."

— Barclays Research Note, January 2, 2026

Risks Worth Watching

No investment thesis is without risks, and Vertiv faces its share of potential headwinds. The company operates in a capital-intensive industry where demand can be cyclical. Any slowdown in hyperscale cloud spending—or a cooling of AI investment enthusiasm—could pressure growth rates.

Additionally, competition in the data center infrastructure space is intensifying. Larger industrial conglomerates like Schneider Electric and Eaton continue to invest heavily in their own data center offerings, potentially pressuring Vertiv's market share over time.

The Bottom Line for Investors

Vertiv's 8.5% single-day surge underscores Wall Street's appetite for AI infrastructure plays beyond the obvious semiconductor names. With Barclays now projecting earnings materially above consensus and the potential catalyst of S&P 500 inclusion on the horizon, the stock has recaptured investor attention at a moment when the AI buildout shows no signs of slowing.

For investors seeking exposure to the physical infrastructure powering the AI revolution, Vertiv's dominant data center positioning makes it a name worth serious consideration as 2026 begins.