U.S. stock futures climbed at the start of the last full trading week of 2025 as a tech selloff that rattled markets last week showed signs of abating. Contracts for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 advanced around 0.5% in early trading, offering hope that the year-end rally might still have legs.

Where We Stand

The S&P 500 fell 1.07% on Friday to end at 6,827.41. The Nasdaq Composite declined 1.69% to 23,195.17 as technology stocks continued their rotation into value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 245.96 points, or 0.51%, at 48,458.05—but not before scoring a new intraday all-time high earlier in the session.

The divergence is telling: the Dow's old-economy composition is holding up better than the tech-heavy Nasdaq, suggesting investors are repositioning portfolios rather than fleeing stocks entirely.

What's Driving This Week

Economic Data Deluge: The delayed November jobs report arrives Tuesday, followed by October retail sales. Thursday brings the November CPI inflation reading. Markets have been flying partially blind since the government shutdown—this week, visibility returns.

Earnings Season Continues: Major reports include:

  • Wednesday: Micron Technology (AI memory bellwether)
  • Thursday: Nike, FedEx, General Mills, Accenture
  • Friday: Carnival Corporation, Darden Restaurants

Bank of Japan: The BOJ's rate decision Thursday night (Friday morning in Tokyo) could be the week's wildcard. An expected rate hike to 30-year highs may roil currency markets and pressure risk assets.

Futures Rollover Today

Monday marks the quarterly rollover for U.S. equity index futures. Traders holding expiring December contracts will roll positions into March futures, creating potential short-term technical flows that have nothing to do with fundamentals.

Nasdaq-100 Watch

The index reconstitution takes effect December 22, adding Seagate, Western Digital, and four others while removing Lululemon, Biogen, and four others. Index funds will rebalance around these changes, creating buying and selling pressure in affected names.

The Bull Case

Wall Street strategists remain remarkably bullish heading into 2026. The consensus S&P 500 target sits around 7,500-8,000, implying meaningful upside from current levels. The tech selloff may be creating buying opportunities in quality names that got ahead of themselves.

The Bear Case

The CAPE ratio sits near its second-highest level in history. Geopolitical risks abound. The Fed is in "wait and see" mode with limited room to ease if problems emerge. Year-end rallies aren't guaranteed—sometimes they're just wishful thinking.

Your Week Ahead Checklist

  • Monday: Watch futures rollover technicals
  • Tuesday: Jobs data—biggest market mover of the week
  • Wednesday: Micron earnings after the bell
  • Thursday: CPI morning, Nike afternoon, BOJ overnight
  • Friday: Digest BOJ decision, position for final trading week of year

The Bottom Line

This week has all the ingredients for significant market moves: delayed economic data finally arriving, major earnings from bellwethers across sectors, and a potentially market-moving central bank decision overseas. Stay nimble, manage position sizes, and don't mistake year-end optimism for fundamental clarity. The data will tell the story—we just have to wait for it.