As earnings season for the transportation sector approaches, all eyes are turning to United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAL), which is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results after the market close on Tuesday, January 20, 2026. The carrier, which has emerged as one of Wall Street's most favored airline stocks, faces high expectations—and appears positioned to meet them.

What Wall Street Expects

Analysts are forecasting solid results that would cap off a transformative year for the Chicago-based carrier:

  • Earnings Per Share: $3.05 consensus estimate, within the company's guidance range of $3.00-$3.50
  • Revenue: $15.44 billion expected, representing 5% year-over-year growth
  • Capacity: Continued expansion in premium segments

The estimates reflect some moderation from earlier projections—the consensus has declined 7.6% over the past 60 days—but remain robust by historical standards. Notably, United has beaten analyst estimates in three of the past four quarters.

The Boeing Tailwind

Perhaps no factor is more important to United's 2026 outlook than the improving delivery situation at Boeing. The aircraft manufacturer, which accounts for the majority of United's future order book, has finally begun to stabilize production after years of delays and quality issues.

TD Cowen, which designated UAL its "Best Idea for 2026" in December, highlighted the Boeing connection in its bullish thesis:

"Improved Boeing aircraft deliveries could help United upgrade its fleet, expand premium seating, and lower operating costs. The combination of better fleet economics and sustained premium demand creates a compelling earnings trajectory."

— TD Cowen Research Note, December 2026

United's fleet modernization efforts center on reducing the average age of its aircraft, improving fuel efficiency, and adding the premium seats that drive higher revenue per available seat mile.

Premium Travel Remains the Story

United has aggressively positioned itself as a premium carrier, investing heavily in business class, first class, and economy-plus products. That bet continues to pay dividends.

The carrier's Polaris business class product has seen strong demand, particularly on lucrative transatlantic routes where corporate travel has recovered faster than expected. Domestic premium sales have also held firm, even as economy-class pricing has faced pressure from increased capacity industry-wide.

Risks on the Radar

While the setup appears favorable, several factors warrant monitoring:

  • Fuel Costs: Oil prices have been volatile, and any sustained spike would pressure margins
  • Tariff Uncertainty: While Boeing produces aircraft domestically, the planes rely on a web of imported parts, including large components of CFM engines
  • Capacity Growth: Industry-wide capacity additions could pressure yields, particularly in domestic markets
  • Macroeconomic Slowdown: Any deterioration in business or leisure travel demand would hit airlines first

The Analyst Scorecard

Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on United. Among 24 analysts covering the stock:

  • 20 rate it "Strong Buy"
  • 2 rate it "Moderate Buy"
  • 2 rate it "Hold"
  • 0 rate it "Sell"

The mean price target stands at $127.30, implying meaningful upside from current levels. The most bullish analysts see the stock reaching $145, while even the bears acknowledge limited downside risk.

Peer Comparison

United's performance stands out among legacy carriers. While Delta Air Lines delivered strong Q4 results last week, United's combination of fleet renewal, premium product leadership, and operational improvements has made it the consensus pick among airline investors.

The contrast with struggling carriers is stark. While budget airlines face existential challenges—evidenced by Spirit Airlines' second bankruptcy filing—premium-focused carriers like United and Delta are thriving.

What to Watch on the Call

Beyond the headline numbers, investors should listen for management commentary on:

  • 2026 capacity plans and the pace of Boeing deliveries
  • Premium demand trends and any signs of corporate travel softening
  • Cost guidance, particularly around labor and fuel
  • International route expansion, especially to Asia where demand is recovering

The earnings call is scheduled for Wednesday, January 21, at 10:30 AM Eastern. For investors looking for transportation sector exposure in 2026, United Airlines remains a name to watch.