United Airlines Holdings reports fourth-quarter 2025 earnings after market close on Tuesday, January 21, and the stakes extend well beyond the company's individual results. After Delta Air Lines set an optimistic tone last week with forecasts of 20% earnings growth in 2026, United's report will either confirm the industry's bullish trajectory or raise questions about whether premium travel demand can sustain current valuations.

The Expectations Bar

Wall Street analysts expect United to report earnings per share of $2.98 to $3.05, representing a year-over-year decline of 6-8%. Revenue is expected to come in flat to slightly higher than the prior year's fourth quarter.

The decline in EPS might seem concerning, but context matters. The fourth quarter of 2024 was exceptionally strong for United, and the comparison faces headwinds from elevated fuel costs earlier in 2025 and the lingering effects of the government shutdown's impact on business travel.

More important than the backward-looking numbers will be United's guidance for 2026. Analysts expect relatively bullish outlooks, helped by lower fuel prices and recovering demand. The question is whether United's management shares that optimism—and whether they can back it up with specific metrics.

The Premium Travel Thesis

Delta's earnings call established the narrative that will frame United's report: premium travel is booming, and airlines positioned to capture high-end customers are winning. Delta reported that premium cabin revenue overtook economy cabin revenue for the first time in the company's 100-year history, a milestone that underscores the "K-shaped" recovery in consumer spending.

"Wealthy travelers have largely kept spending, leading airlines such as Delta to grow their premium products. These trends could continue, with premium revenue outpacing basic cabin growth."

— Bank of America airline sector analysis

United has invested heavily in its premium products, including the Polaris business class and expanded first-class cabins on domestic routes. If the company can demonstrate similar premium momentum to Delta, it would validate the thesis that airlines have successfully repositioned themselves as luxury service providers rather than commodity transportation.

Business Travel Recovery

One metric that will receive particular scrutiny: business travel revenue. Corporate travel has been the slowest segment to recover from pandemic disruptions, with many companies maintaining hybrid work arrangements that reduce the need for frequent flights.

Delta reported encouraging signs of corporate demand in its earnings call. If United confirms a similar trend, it would suggest the business travel recovery has finally reached escape velocity. If United's business metrics disappoint, it might indicate Delta's experience is company-specific rather than industry-wide.

The Capacity Question

Airline profitability depends critically on the balance between supply and demand. Too much capacity growth floods the market with seats, driving down fares and margins. Too little leaves revenue on the table.

United announced plans to hire over 5,200 new employees in 2026, including 2,000 pilots and 3,200 flight attendants. This suggests management expects demand to support capacity growth. But if competitors are also expanding aggressively, the industry could face a supply glut that pressures pricing.

Watch for management's comments on domestic versus international capacity. International routes, particularly to Asia and Europe, have faced geopolitical headwinds but also offer better yields when demand is strong. Domestic routes are more competitive but also more stable.

Fuel Cost Tailwind

One clear positive for United: fuel costs are falling. Oil prices have retreated from their 2025 highs following diplomatic signals that reduced the geopolitical risk premium. Brent crude has settled below $65 per barrel, well below the levels that pressured airline margins earlier in 2025.

The International Air Transport Association projects jet fuel prices will decline 2.4% in 2026, from $90 per barrel to $88 per barrel. This tailwind, combined with the fuel hedges most airlines maintain, should provide margin support even if revenue growth disappoints.

What Could Go Wrong

Several risks could cloud United's report:

  • Tariff impact on international travel: Trade tensions have reduced business travel between the U.S. and China, a lucrative route for United. Any deterioration in the trade truce could pressure international revenue.
  • Boeing delivery delays: United has significant aircraft orders with Boeing, which has struggled with production issues. Delivery delays could constrain growth plans.
  • Labor costs: Pilot and flight attendant contracts have been renegotiated at higher rates across the industry. These costs are largely fixed and could pressure margins if revenue growth slows.
  • Recession risk: Travel is discretionary spending. If economic conditions deteriorate, business and leisure travel could decline faster than currently expected.

The Stock Setup

United shares have rallied along with the broader market in early 2026, but the stock has underperformed some peers. This could be opportunity or warning, depending on whether the underperformance reflects company-specific concerns or simply presents a buying opportunity before strong earnings.

Options markets are pricing in a move of roughly 8% in either direction following the report, suggesting traders expect significant news. For a stock trading around $65, that implies a potential swing of $5 or more per share.

The Bigger Picture

Beyond United's specific results, Tuesday's report will help answer a question that matters for the entire consumer economy: Is premium spending sustainable, or is the K-shaped recovery reaching its limits?

If United confirms Delta's premium travel thesis with strong numbers and optimistic guidance, it would suggest the high-end consumer remains resilient despite elevated interest rates and sticky inflation. That's bullish not just for airlines but for the entire luxury goods and services sector.

If United disappoints or offers cautious guidance, it might signal that even wealthy consumers are beginning to pull back—a warning sign that the economic expansion is more fragile than recent data suggests.

Either way, Tuesday's report deserves attention from investors well beyond those with airline exposure.