Gold's remarkable run may be far from over. After posting gains of more than 60% in 2025 and surpassing $4,000 per ounce for the first time in October, the precious metal is now the target of some of the most bullish forecasts Wall Street has ever issued.
The $5,000 Targets
J.P. Morgan Global Research is forecasting gold prices to average $5,055 per ounce by the final quarter of 2026, with prices potentially rising toward $5,400 by the end of 2027. Swiss banking giant UBS has set a similar $5,000 target for 2026, while Goldman Sachs sees $4,900 per ounce in its base case scenario.
Across major banks, the average 2026 forecast clusters around $4,500 to $4,700, while the upper band stretches toward $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions don't tighten.
"Our price forecasts are underpinned by continued strong investor and central bank gold demand, projected to average around 585 tonnes per quarter."
— J.P. Morgan Global Research
What's Driving the Rally?
Several structural factors support the bullish case:
Central Bank Accumulation
Central banks are expected to maintain robust purchasing activity—potentially 750 to 900 tonnes annually—as emerging markets diversify reserves amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. China, India, Turkey, and other nations have been steadily reducing their dollar exposure in favor of gold.
Monetary Policy Tailwinds
With the Federal Reserve likely to continue its rate-cutting cycle through 2026, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold decreases. Lower real interest rates have historically been associated with higher gold prices.
Geopolitical Premium
The war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and broader concerns about global economic fragmentation have added a persistent risk premium to gold prices. Investors are treating the metal as portfolio insurance against unexpected shocks.
The Upside Scenario
UBS's upside scenario suggests gold could rise as high as $5,400 if U.S. political and economic risks escalate. That would represent roughly a 30% gain from current levels—after a year in which gold already delivered 60%+ returns.
Such gains might seem ambitious, but gold has defied skeptics before. Few predicted in 2024 that the metal would achieve over 50 all-time highs in a single year.
Silver's Parallel Story
Silver is also expected to outperform in 2026, driven by the same safe-haven demand that's boosting gold, plus accelerating industrial demand from the clean energy transition. Some forecasts suggest silver could reach $87 per ounce.
After breaking above key resistance levels following a 120% surge in 2025, silver has entered what traders call "price-discovery territory." A fifth consecutive year of structural supply deficit and rising demand from solar panel manufacturing support targets beyond $65.
The Bear Case
Not everyone is convinced the rally has legs. Potential risks include:
- A Hawkish Fed: If inflation proves stickier than expected and the Fed pauses or reverses course on rate cuts
- Central Bank Fatigue: If official sector buying slows after several years of aggressive accumulation
- Geopolitical De-escalation: If tensions ease and risk appetite returns broadly to markets
- Dollar Strength: A resurgent dollar would pressure gold prices
How to Position
For investors considering gold exposure, several options exist:
- Physical gold: Coins and bars offer direct ownership but come with storage costs
- Gold ETFs: Funds like GLD and IAU provide liquid, low-cost exposure
- Mining stocks: Gold miners offer leveraged exposure but with equity-specific risks
- Gold streaming companies: Firms like Wheaton Precious Metals and Franco-Nevada offer exposure with reduced operational risk
The Bottom Line
Gold's 2025 performance proved that the precious metal can still surprise to the upside. With major institutions projecting $5,000 or higher, the question for investors isn't whether gold deserves a place in portfolios—it's how much.
As always, diversification remains key. But in an era of persistent uncertainty, gold's ancient appeal shows no signs of fading.
