Tom Lee has made a career out of bold Bitcoin calls. Some have been spectacularly right. Others have been spectacularly wrong. But his latest prediction may be his most daring—and his most divisive—yet.

The Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder and head of research is calling for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high above $126,000 by the end of January 2026. With Bitcoin currently trading around $91,000, that requires a 35% gain in fewer than 20 trading days.

The Bull Case

"I don't think Bitcoin has peaked yet," Lee said in a recent interview. "We were overly optimistic about achieving the high-water mark before December, but I do believe that Bitcoin can hit a new all-time high by the end of January 2026."

Lee points to several factors supporting his bullish thesis:

  • Institutional accumulation: Despite recent ETF outflows, long-term institutional holders continue to build positions
  • Regulatory clarity: The SEC's new "innovation exemption" could transform crypto markets within weeks
  • Historical patterns: Bitcoin's current consolidation mirrors patterns that preceded major rallies in 2020 and 2024
  • Macro tailwinds: Dollar weakness and safe-haven demand amid Fed turmoil support crypto prices

"2026 is going to be a year of two halves. The first half may be tough as we deal with institutional rebalancing and a strategic reset in the crypto markets, but that volatility is exactly what sets the stage for the massive rally we expect in the back half."

— Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors

The Internal Debate

But here's where it gets interesting. According to internal research documents that have circulated among Fundstrat clients, Tom Lee's public statements don't represent full consensus within the firm.

Fundstrat's tactical research team, which focuses on short-term volatility and risk management, holds a more cautious outlook. Internal notes suggest Bitcoin could retrace to the $60,000–$65,000 range between early and mid-2026 before any sustained rally materializes.

"There's a healthy internal debate at Fundstrat, which is actually how good research should work," said one institutional client who reviewed the documents. "Tom is the public face and the strategic bull, but the tactical team is more measured."

Lee's Track Record

To evaluate Lee's January call, it's worth examining his history:

The Hits

  • Correctly predicted Bitcoin would reach new all-time highs in 2024
  • Called the post-ETF rally in early 2024
  • Identified institutional adoption as a major catalyst years before it materialized

The Misses

  • Predicted $200,000 Bitcoin by end of 2025—it peaked at $126,000 in October before retreating
  • Called for $25,000 Bitcoin in 2018 when it ultimately bottomed near $3,200
  • Underestimated the severity of the 2022 crypto winter

Lee has maintained a $200,000 to $250,000 long-term Bitcoin target for 2026, even as his near-term calls have sometimes missed the mark.

Technical Setup

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin's current consolidation around $91,000-$93,000 does share characteristics with previous pre-rally patterns. Bernstein analysts noted this week that Bitcoin's "time-based capitulation" has reached 50 days, echoing conditions that preceded the April 2025 surge.

"We believe with reasonable confidence that Bitcoin and broader digital asset markets have bottomed," wrote Bernstein analysts, pointing to $80,000 as the November low that likely marked the cycle floor.

Bernstein maintains its own forecast of $150,000 Bitcoin in 2026 and $200,000 in 2027—targets that align more closely with Lee's longer-term view than his January prediction.

What Would It Take?

For Bitcoin to reach $126,000 by January 31, several things would need to happen:

  • ETF flows reverse: Bitcoin ETFs have seen $1.1 billion in outflows over three days—that trend would need to reverse sharply
  • Macro catalyst: A dovish CPI reading on Tuesday or Fed-related developments could trigger risk-on sentiment
  • Technical breakout: Bitcoin needs to clear the $95,000 resistance level that has capped rallies since November
  • Short squeeze: Elevated short interest could fuel a rapid move higher if resistance breaks

The Stakes

For Lee personally, missing another headline prediction could damage his credibility as crypto's most prominent Wall Street bull. But he's been wrong before and maintained his platform—institutional clients generally view him as a strategic thinker rather than a short-term trader.

"Tom's value isn't in calling the exact month of a high," said one hedge fund manager. "It's in understanding the secular trends. The January call is high-risk, but it doesn't change the fundamental bull case."

Market Context

Bitcoin enters this week with mixed signals. South Korea just lifted its nine-year ban on corporate crypto investment, potentially unlocking new institutional demand. The SEC's evolving regulatory stance under Chair Paul Atkins appears increasingly crypto-friendly.

But offsetting these positives are concerns about Federal Reserve independence, Treasury market volatility, and the ongoing uncertainty around President Trump's economic policies.

Industry forecasts for 2026 range widely—from bears calling for $75,000 to bulls projecting $225,000. Tom Lee sits firmly at the optimistic end of that spectrum.

Whether Bitcoin hits his January target or not, one thing is certain: the crypto world will be watching.