Tesla is about to face its toughest delivery report in years, and the company knows it.

In an unusual move, Tesla published its own delivery consensus on its investor relations website ahead of Q4 results—a departure from standard practice that suggests the automaker is trying to get ahead of what looks to be a disappointing quarter.

The numbers tell the story. Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu expects Tesla to deliver approximately 405,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, implying a 14% decline from a year earlier and a 19% drop from Q3. UBS has cut its forecast to 415,000 units. New Street Research expects somewhere between 415,000 and 435,000.

The FactSet consensus has fallen to 449,000 vehicles, down from 450,000 earlier this month. Bloomberg's consensus sits lower still at 445,000.

The Tax Credit Cliff

The primary culprit is the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit. For months, the credit provided a powerful demand tailwind, effectively reducing the cost of Tesla's vehicles by thousands of dollars. Now that subsidy has vanished.

The impact on U.S. demand is expected to be severe. One analyst projects American deliveries falling by approximately 75,000 units quarter-over-quarter—a staggering decline that reflects just how much the tax credit was propping up sales.

"By anchoring expectations to ~420k now, a 425k result might be spun as a 'beat.'"

— Market analysts on Tesla's unusual guidance release

The China Wildcard

Not all the news is grim. December has historically been Tesla's strongest month in China, and a higher new energy vehicle consumption tax taking effect in 2026 could encourage Chinese buyers to pull forward purchases into the final weeks of 2025.

But even a strong China finish may not be enough to offset the American slowdown. Tesla's largest market is suddenly its weakest, and the company's ability to compensate through international sales has limits.

A Year-End Reality Check

If Tesla hits the median target of approximately 420,000 deliveries for Q4, it would bring the full-year 2025 total to roughly 1.64 million vehicles. That's a respectable number in absolute terms—but it would represent essentially flat growth for a company that once doubled production every couple of years.

For a stock that trades at roughly 180 times trailing earnings, flat growth is a problem. Tesla's valuation has long been predicated on the assumption of continued rapid expansion. If that growth story is stalling, the multiple becomes harder to justify.

What Investors Should Watch

When Tesla reports Q4 deliveries on January 2, several factors will determine the market's reaction:

The absolute number matters less than the trajectory. A miss below 410,000 would signal deeper demand problems. A beat above 435,000 would suggest Tesla is navigating the post-tax-credit environment better than feared.

Geographic mix tells the story. Strong China numbers can mask U.S. weakness, but investors will be watching domestic performance closely for signs of underlying demand.

Commentary on 2026 will be crucial. The delivery report itself contains no narrative, but how Tesla positions expectations for next year—particularly around new models and pricing—will shape sentiment heading into earnings.

The Bigger Picture

Tesla's Q4 challenges reflect broader dynamics in the EV market. The industry's fastest growth phase appears to be ending, at least in the U.S. Early adopters have bought their Teslas. Mainstream consumers remain price-sensitive. And without generous subsidies, the value proposition of going electric is more complex.

None of this means Tesla is in trouble. The company remains profitable, cash-rich, and technologically advanced. But the era of easy growth may be over—and the stock price, still hovering near record highs, may not fully reflect that reality.

January 2 will provide the first hard evidence of what the post-subsidy EV market actually looks like. Whatever the number, it will set the tone for how investors think about Tesla—and the entire EV sector—in 2026.