Tesla shares retreated from record territory on Tuesday, slipping 0.7% to close at $485 after briefly touching $498.83—an intraday all-time high. The pullback comes as analysts increasingly flag concerns about fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries, creating tension between short-term fundamentals and longer-term robotaxi optimism.
The $500 Question
Tesla's approach to the psychologically significant $500 mark has captured investor attention:
- Intraday high: $498.83 (December 23)
- Record close: $489.88 (December 16)
- 2025 return: Up 22% year-to-date
- Market cap: Approximately $1.5 trillion
Q4 Delivery Concerns
Several major analysts have flagged delivery risks for the quarter:
- UBS: Forecasts 415,000-425,000 deliveries, below the 440,000 consensus
- New Street Research: Similar concerns about delivery shortfall
- Consensus estimate: Approximately 440,000 vehicles
UBS reiterated a Sell rating with a $247 price target, while Canaccord boosted its target to $551—highlighting the wide dispersion of analyst views.
The Robotaxi Bull Case
Despite near-term delivery concerns, Tesla's stock has rallied on excitement about autonomous driving:
CEO Elon Musk recently disclosed that Tesla has been testing fully driverless vehicles in Austin, Texas, with no occupants on board—a significant milestone almost six months after launching a pilot program with safety drivers.
The market is increasingly treating Tesla "less like a carmaker and more like an autonomy + robotics platform," according to analysts, even while using quarterly deliveries as a reality check.
Musk-Trump Tailwinds
Tesla's rally also reflects expectations of favorable treatment from the incoming Trump administration:
- Autonomous driving: Faster federal approval for self-driving technology
- Regulatory relief: Reduced oversight burdens
- Tariff protection: Potential barriers against Chinese EV competition
- Tax policy: Possible extension of EV tax credits
Musk's close relationship with President-elect Trump has investors betting on policy tailwinds.
Valuation Debate
At roughly 60x forward earnings, Tesla trades at a significant premium to traditional automakers. Bulls argue this reflects:
- AI and autonomous driving optionality
- Energy storage and solar business growth
- Robotics (Optimus humanoid robot) potential
- Software and services revenue expansion
Bears counter that EV competition is intensifying, margins are under pressure, and the core auto business doesn't justify the valuation.
What to Watch
Key near-term catalysts for Tesla investors:
- Q4 deliveries: Numbers due in early January
- Full Self-Driving progress: Regulatory approval timeline
- Robotaxi launch: When and where service begins
- Cybertruck ramp: Production scaling and demand trends
Technical Picture
Tesla's chart shows:
- Support: $460 level
- Resistance: $500-$520 zone
- Trend: Strong uptrend since November lows near $350
The Bottom Line
Tesla's retreat from $500 reflects the stock's dual nature: a fundamentals-driven auto company facing delivery questions, and a speculative bet on AI, autonomy, and robotics. The truth likely lies somewhere in between. Near-term, Q4 delivery numbers will matter. Longer-term, the robotaxi and AI narrative will determine whether Tesla can sustain its premium valuation. For investors, the key question is which Tesla you're buying—and whether you believe Musk can deliver on his ambitious vision.
