The U.S. Supreme Court punted on its tariff decision yet again Wednesday, extending a wait that has kept markets, businesses, and trade lawyers in suspense for three weeks. The high court's first two opportunities to issue a verdict in 2026 have come and gone without a ruling, leaving the fate of President Trump's signature economic policy unresolved.

At stake is nothing less than the legality of the administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping import duties—including the 10% global baseline tariffs and the higher "reciprocal" tariffs announced in early April. If the court rules against the president, the implications could be seismic.

What's at Stake

The numbers are staggering. U.S. Customs announced in December that it had collected $200 billion in new tariffs imposed during President Trump's second term. In the underlying case, approximately $135 billion in potential refunds hang in the balance—money that would need to be returned to importers if the court finds the tariffs were illegally imposed.

But the financial implications extend far beyond refunds:

  • Supply chain decisions: Companies have made billions in investments based on the current tariff structure
  • Pricing strategies: Retailers have adjusted prices to account for tariff costs that may or may not persist
  • Trade negotiations: Other countries' willingness to negotiate depends partly on whether U.S. tariff authority survives legal challenge

The Legal Arguments

Lower courts had ruled that President Trump exceeded his authority in using IEEPA—a law designed for genuine national emergencies—as a mechanism for quickly enacting broad import duties. The Supreme Court took up the case on an expedited basis last year.

During oral arguments in November, both conservative and liberal justices asked skeptical questions about the administration's legal theory. Several justices appeared troubled by the precedent of allowing any president to impose tariffs unilaterally by declaring an economic emergency.

"If the president can impose tariffs on anything by declaring an emergency, what exactly limits executive power in trade policy?"

— Justice's question during oral arguments (paraphrased)

Yet the court's delays have introduced new uncertainty. JPMorgan's legal analysts note that "each week the Supreme Court delays its decision increases the likelihood of the Trump administration prevailing."

Why Delay Matters

The longer tariffs remain in place, the more entrenched they become in the economic fabric. Businesses adjust, supply chains reorganize, and the status quo develops its own momentum. A ruling that might have prompted sweeping changes six months ago may feel less disruptive after years of operation.

Additionally, delay gives Congress time to potentially codify the tariffs legislatively, which would moot the IEEPA question entirely. While such legislation faces uncertain prospects, the possibility exists.

Market Implications

Financial markets have largely priced in the continuation of current tariffs, but uncertainty persists in specific sectors:

Import-Dependent Retailers

Companies with significant exposure to imported goods face continued margin uncertainty. A ruling against the tariffs could provide a significant earnings boost; a ruling in favor could prompt additional tariff rounds.

Domestic Manufacturers

U.S. manufacturers who benefit from tariff protection face the opposite calculation. Many have invested in domestic capacity expansion predicated on tariffs remaining in place.

Currency Markets

The dollar's value partly reflects tariff policy. An adverse ruling could weaken the dollar as trade barriers fall, while a favorable ruling might strengthen it.

When Will We Know?

The Supreme Court hasn't indicated when it will issue its next opinions but could schedule decisions for Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, when the justices are again in session. However, the court is under no obligation to rule on any particular timeline.

Legal experts continue to expect a ruling against the IEEPA tariff authority, but confidence has eroded with each week of delay. The court may be wrestling with how to craft a decision that addresses constitutional concerns while minimizing economic disruption.

What Businesses Should Do

Given the uncertainty, companies exposed to tariff risk should:

  • Maintain hedging strategies: Don't assume any particular outcome
  • Document potential refund claims: Preserve records in case tariffs are eventually invalidated
  • Monitor legislative developments: Congressional action could change the calculus
  • Build flexibility into supply chains: The ability to shift sourcing remains valuable regardless of the ruling

For now, Wall Street's longest-running legal drama of 2026 continues. The Supreme Court will rule when it rules—and until then, America's trade policy remains in constitutional limbo.