In a market that loves to abandon losers, one Wall Street firm is doubling down on what many consider the most controversial bet in crypto-adjacent investing. Benchmark has reiterated its buy rating on Strategy Inc.—the company formerly known as MicroStrategy—with a 2026 price target of $705. That represents more than 350% upside from current levels, making it one of the boldest calls on Wall Street.

The conviction is remarkable given the circumstances. Strategy shares have cratered 66% from their September highs, registering six consecutive months of losses—the longest such streak since the company adopted its Bitcoin treasury strategy in August 2020. At $152, the stock trades at roughly a 26% discount to its net asset value, based on Bitcoin prices near $95,000.

The Bull Case: Bitcoin to $225,000

Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer's thesis rests on a simple but explosive assumption: Bitcoin will reach $225,000 by the end of 2026. If that forecast proves accurate, Strategy's treasury of approximately 672,497 BTC—representing 3.2% of Bitcoin's total supply—would be worth roughly $151 billion, more than justifying the lofty price target.

"Strategy's capital structure amplifies exposure to long-term bitcoin price movements," Palmer wrote in his research note. "The firm's large and growing Bitcoin holdings create a leveraged play on the underlying asset that no other public company can match."

The MSCI Sword of Damocles

But before any of those bullish scenarios can play out, Strategy must survive the January 15 deadline that has investors on edge. MSCI is expected to announce a final decision on whether to remove the company from its indexes—a move JPMorgan estimates could trigger as much as $8.8 billion in outflows as passive funds are forced to sell.

The potential exclusion stems from Strategy's unusual business model. While technically a software company, its balance sheet has become almost entirely a vehicle for Bitcoin exposure. This classification challenge has created uncertainty about whether the company belongs in traditional equity indexes at all.

A Company Transformed

Strategy's metamorphosis has been dramatic. When Michael Saylor first announced the company's Bitcoin strategy in 2020, it was a bold gamble by a struggling enterprise software firm. Today, the software business generates minimal positive cash flow, while the Bitcoin holdings dominate the company's value proposition entirely.

That transformation has created structural vulnerabilities. Strategy faces concerns that it may need to sell shares to pay dividends and interest, since its Bitcoin holdings don't generate income. The company recently declared a dividend on its Stretch preferred stock, but the lack of traditional cash flow has raised questions about sustainability.

"At current market levels, investors are essentially getting Bitcoin at a 26% discount through MSTR shares—but that discount exists for a reason."

— Wall Street analyst covering Strategy

The Analyst Divide

Not everyone shares Benchmark's optimism. Citigroup recently slashed its price target by 33% to $325, though it maintained a buy rating. MarketBeat data shows a consensus price target of roughly $465, with published forecasts ranging wildly from $54 to Benchmark's $705.

The dispersion reflects genuine uncertainty about how to value a company that defies traditional categorization. Is Strategy a technology company, a Bitcoin holding company, or something entirely new? The answer will likely determine whether the stock recovers or continues its slide.

What January 15 Means

For investors, the MSCI decision represents a potential catalyst in either direction. An exclusion could accelerate the selling pressure, potentially pushing shares even lower. But if Strategy survives the review, it could remove a significant overhang and allow the stock to trade more on Bitcoin fundamentals.

The next two weeks will test whether Benchmark's conviction proves prescient or premature. In a market defined by narratives, Strategy embodies the ultimate binary bet: either Bitcoin validates the audacious thesis, or the company's unique model becomes a cautionary tale about corporate overreach into digital assets.

For now, Benchmark is betting on validation. At $705, they're not just predicting a recovery—they're forecasting a resurrection.