Silver has always been gold's more volatile sibling, prone to dramatic swings that can make or break portfolios. But after a 2025 rally that saw the metal more than double in value—its best annual performance in over four decades—even seasoned precious metals investors are recalibrating their expectations for what's possible.

The numbers tell a remarkable story. Silver entered 2025 trading around $30 per ounce and finished the year above $70, a gain of more than 142% that dwarfed gold's impressive 66% advance. And if a new survey from Kitco News is any indication, many investors believe the rally is just getting started.

The $100 Target

According to the survey, 57% of retail investors expect silver to trade above $100 per ounce at some point in 2026. That's not a consensus view—it represents a substantial minority expecting gains of another 40% or more from current levels—but it does reflect a degree of bullish conviction that would have seemed outlandish just two years ago.

The optimism isn't confined to retail traders. Some veteran technical analysts have suggested even more ambitious targets.

"I've been studying commodity markets for four decades, and the setup for silver right now is as constructive as I've ever seen. A move to $100-$200 by early 2026 is within the realm of possibility."

— Michael Oliver, Momentum Structural Analysis

Such forecasts might sound hyperbolic, but they're rooted in a confluence of factors that bulls argue make this silver cycle different from those that came before.

The Supply-Demand Equation

Unlike gold, which is hoarded as a store of value with limited industrial applications, silver straddles two worlds. It's a monetary metal with a 5,000-year history as money, and it's an industrial commodity with growing applications in electronics, solar panels, and medical devices.

This dual nature is creating what bulls call a "perfect storm" for prices.

The Supply Crunch

Global silver demand has now outpaced mine supply for five consecutive years, drawing down above-ground inventories that had accumulated over decades. The deficit isn't small—estimates suggest the gap between supply and demand was approximately 180 million ounces in 2025 alone.

Making matters worse, there's been chronic underinvestment in new silver mining capacity. Unlike gold, silver is rarely mined as a primary product; most comes as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining. This means supply can't easily ramp up in response to higher prices.

Some major producing nations have taken steps that further tighten the market. China has halted silver exports and imposed new licensing requirements. Countries that once held massive strategic stockpiles—including the United States—have essentially drawn them down to zero.

Industrial Demand Acceleration

On the demand side, the energy transition is proving to be a powerful tailwind. Solar panel production requires significant amounts of silver, and the global push toward renewable energy has sent photovoltaic demand soaring. The average solar panel contains about 20 grams of silver, and with hundreds of millions of panels being manufactured annually, the numbers add up quickly.

Electric vehicles, while using less silver than internal combustion cars per unit, are projected to drive additional demand as the global fleet transitions. And emerging applications in 5G infrastructure, water purification, and medical devices continue to expand the metal's industrial footprint.

The Macro Backdrop

Beyond supply and demand fundamentals, silver is benefiting from a macroeconomic environment that favors hard assets.

Interest Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates, and most forecasters expect additional reductions in 2026. Lower rates historically benefit precious metals by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and by weakening the dollar.

"When real interest rates are low or negative, gold and silver become more attractive," explains Brien Lundin, editor of Gold Newsletter. "The Fed's shift toward easier policy removes a headwind that had been holding metals back."

Dollar Weakness

The U.S. dollar fell over 9% in 2025, its worst annual performance since 2017. A weaker dollar makes commodities priced in dollars cheaper for international buyers, supporting demand. Many analysts expect further dollar weakness in 2026 as Fed rate cuts narrow the interest rate advantage that had supported the greenback.

Geopolitical Uncertainty

From the conflict in Ukraine to tensions in the Middle East to the recent U.S. action in Venezuela, the world remains a turbulent place. Precious metals have traditionally served as a safe haven during periods of geopolitical stress, and the current environment provides no shortage of catalysts for flight-to-safety buying.

The Bear Case

For all the bullish arguments, silver's path to $100 is far from assured. The metal's volatility cuts both ways, and several factors could derail the rally.

Fed Policy Surprise

If inflation proves more persistent than expected and the Fed is forced to pause or reverse its rate cuts, precious metals could suffer. Higher interest rates increase the attractiveness of bonds and cash relative to non-yielding assets like silver.

Economic Recession

Silver's industrial demand could falter in a recession scenario. Unlike gold, which often rises during economic downturns, silver has historically been vulnerable to industrial slowdowns that reduce demand for electronics, solar panels, and other applications.

Technical Resistance

From a charting perspective, silver faces significant resistance at round-number levels. The $80 and $100 marks are likely to attract profit-taking and could prove difficult to breach on the first attempt.

How to Play Silver

For investors convinced by the bull case, there are several ways to gain exposure:

Physical Silver

Coins and bars provide direct ownership but come with storage costs and dealer premiums that can eat into returns. Physical silver is best suited for long-term holders who value having tangible assets outside the financial system.

Silver ETFs

Exchange-traded funds like the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) provide convenient exposure to silver prices without the hassles of physical ownership. These funds track the metal's price closely and can be bought and sold like stocks.

Silver Mining Stocks

Companies like First Majestic Silver, Pan American Silver, and Wheaton Precious Metals offer leveraged exposure to silver prices. When silver rises, mining profits can increase even faster, amplifying returns. The flip side is that miners also amplify losses when prices fall.

The Bottom Line

Silver's 2025 performance was extraordinary by any historical measure. Whether 2026 can deliver an encore depends on the interplay of supply constraints, industrial demand, monetary policy, and investor sentiment.

The 57% of retail investors expecting $100 silver may prove prescient or they may be catching the metal at a top. What seems clear is that silver is no longer flying under the radar. After decades of underperformance relative to gold, the white metal is demanding attention—and capital.

For investors willing to stomach the volatility, silver's unique position at the intersection of monetary and industrial demand makes it one of the more compelling commodity plays of 2026. Just don't bet the farm on any single price target.