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The U.S. economy grew just 1.4% in Q4 2025, a sharp drop from 4.4% in Q3. While the government shutdown shaved a full point off growth, the underlying slowdown signals deeper structural challenges heading into 2026.
The DHS government shutdown is now hitting TSA workers' paychecks as 58,000 airport security agents work without pay. Workers are turning to food banks and payday loans as Congress remains deadlocked.
USDA forecasts beef prices will rise 9.4% in 2026, the sharpest increase in years. Tariffs on steel and aluminum are raising packaging costs for canned goods, beverages, and processed foods.
The US Congress passed sweeping stablecoin legislation creating a federal framework for digital currency banks. The OCC can now charter National Digital Currency Banks under strict reserve requirements.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reports household debt hit $18.8 trillion in Q4 2025, with delinquency rates at 4.8%, the highest since 2016. Credit card and auto loan stress is building.
One year after DOGE began slashing federal payrolls, 300,000 government jobs have been eliminated, AI is displacing professional workers, and economists warn a white-collar recession is taking shape.
Core PCE inflation accelerated to 3.0% in December, killing any chance of a March rate cut. With the January PPI report due today and tariffs about to raise costs further, the inflation outlook is darkening.
Penn Entertainment stock jumped 13% after Q4 2025 revenue of $1.81 billion beat estimates, with iCasino revenue hitting an all-time high following the ESPN Bet exit.
Average HELOC rates have fallen to 7.23% and home equity loan rates to 7.44%, their lowest since late 2022. With $35 trillion in home equity and three expected Fed cuts, borrowing is accelerating.
Mortgage refinancing applications have surged 130% year-over-year as rates drop below 6%. Refinances now make up 62% of all mortgage applications, the highest share since 2021.
The IMF's 2026 Article IV report projects 2.6% GDP growth but warns tariffs, Medicaid cuts, and food assistance reductions will materially reduce disposable incomes for the bottom third of Americans.
The enhanced ACA premium tax credits expired, doubling insurance costs for 22 million Americans. Analysts project 5 million could become uninsured in the largest health coverage disruption since Obamacare launched.