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US GDP grew just 1.4% in Q4 2025, half the 2.8% forecast. The government shutdown subtracted a full percentage point, exposing the economy's growing fragility.
The CBOE Volatility Index hit its highest level of 2026, surging 42% year-to-date as hot PPI inflation data, imminent tariffs, and the tech sector selloff end the low-volatility regime.
The Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA cannot be used to impose tariffs, but Trump responded within hours by invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, keeping tariff rates elevated.
The IMF forecasts 2.4% GDP growth and falling unemployment but warns that tariff uncertainty and federal debt approaching 110% of GDP by 2031 are the biggest risks to the expansion.
Trump called for new personal and corporate tax cuts through a second reconciliation bill during his SOTU, but Republicans' 218-214 House majority makes passage a razor-thin legislative challenge.
During the State of the Union, Trump announced a government-backed retirement match of up to $1,000 per year for the 57 million American workers who lack employer-sponsored 401(k) plans.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News the economy can grow at least 3.5% in 2026, dismissing the Q4 GDP print of 1.4% as distorted. Here is what the numbers actually say.
The White House formally submitted Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the Federal Reserve on Monday, setting up March confirmation hearings that will determine whether the most consequential Fed leadership transition since Volcker proceeds on schedule.
Short-term Treasury yields are rising to 3.7% while the 10-year falls to 4.0%, creating a rare 'twist' pattern. Here is what this unusual bond market signal means for your money.
Trump's 2026 SOTU address features Trump Accounts for newborns, an AI electricity mandate, drug pricing reform, and an affordability push as the economy slows to 1.4% growth.
Since 1957, the S&P 500 has suffered a correction in 70% of midterm election years, with an average intra-year drawdown of 18%. Here is how to position for 2026's most predictable risk.
Japan's government bond yields have surged to their highest level since 1995 as the Bank of Japan signals more rate hikes, and the impact is already rippling through U.S. Treasury markets.