Pfizer delivered its full-year 2026 guidance on Monday, and Wall Street isn't thrilled. The pharmaceutical giant expects adjusted earnings per share of $2.80 to $3.00—below the $3.05 consensus estimate—while projecting revenue of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion, also shy of the $61.6 billion analysts expected.
The culprit? COVID-19 products continue their inevitable decline, dragging on a company that became synonymous with pandemic response.
The COVID Hangover
Pfizer's 2026 guidance includes a stark assumption: COVID-19 product revenues will be approximately $1.5 billion lower than 2025 levels. Add to that an expected $1.5 billion negative impact from products losing patent exclusivity, and you have $3 billion in headwinds before the company even starts trying to grow.
At the pandemic's peak, Pfizer's COVID vaccine and Paxlovid treatment generated over $50 billion in combined annual revenue. Those days are gone. The company now faces the classic pharmaceutical challenge: finding new blockbusters to replace aging products losing patent protection.
The Growth Buried in the Guidance
Pfizer isn't completely standing still. Excluding COVID-19 products and drugs facing loss of exclusivity, the company expects operational revenue growth of approximately 4% year-over-year at the midpoint. That's modest but respectable for a company of Pfizer's size.
CEO Albert Bourla struck an optimistic tone: "2025 was a year of strong execution and strategic progress for Pfizer. We've strengthened our foundation, advanced our R&D pipeline, and positioned our company for sustainable growth in the post-LOE period."
Margin Pressures Ahead
Beyond the top line, Pfizer faces margin compression in 2026. The company anticipates a higher tax rate of approximately 15%, up from 11% in 2025. While gross and operating margins should remain stable, that tax hit flows directly to the bottom line.
Pfizer expects adjusted selling, general, and administrative expenses of $12.5 billion to $13.5 billion—reflecting progress on its cost realignment program but still a significant expense base.
2025 Guidance Affirmed
For the current fiscal year, Pfizer narrowed its revenue guidance to approximately $62 billion (from $61-64 billion previously) while affirming adjusted EPS guidance of $3.00 to $3.15. The fourth quarter appears on track, which may provide some comfort to investors spooked by the 2026 outlook.
The Investment Case
Pfizer trades at a significant discount to pharmaceutical peers, reflecting market skepticism about post-COVID growth. Bulls argue the pipeline is underappreciated and that the COVID hangover will eventually fade. Bears counter that big pharma growth is structurally challenged and that Pfizer's best days are behind it.
The Bottom Line
Pfizer's 2026 guidance confirms what many investors feared: the post-pandemic transition is messy and will take time. The company isn't broken—4% underlying growth and stable margins aren't disasters—but it's also not the growth story it briefly was. For income investors, Pfizer's dividend remains attractive. For growth seekers, there are better options in healthcare.
