The housing market is showing its first genuine signs of life in nearly two years. Pending home sales jumped 3.3% in November, the largest monthly increase since February 2023, according to data released Monday by the National Association of Realtors. The index of contract signings rose to 79.2, its highest level since early 2023.

The surge caught economists off guard. Wall Street had expected a modest 0.9% uptick, making the actual gain more than three times larger than anticipated.

What's Driving the Turnaround

"Homebuyer momentum is building," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "Improving housing affordability—driven by lower mortgage rates and wage growth rising faster than home prices—is helping buyers test the market."

The numbers back up that assessment. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in November fell to 6.24%, the lowest level in over a year. Meanwhile, wages have been outpacing home price appreciation for most of 2025, gradually chipping away at the affordability crisis that has kept many buyers on the sidelines since rates spiked in 2022.

Regional Breakdown Shows Broad Strength

Perhaps most encouraging for the industry is that the recovery isn't concentrated in a single region. All four major areas of the country posted gains:

  • West: Led the pack with a 9.2% monthly surge
  • South: Rose 2.8% from October
  • Midwest: Climbed 1.4%
  • Northeast: Gained 1.0%

Year-over-year, contract activity is now up 2.6% nationally—the first positive annual comparison in months.

The Sobering Context

Despite the encouraging November data, 2025 remains on pace to be a historically weak year for home sales. Through the first 11 months of the year, existing-home sales totaled 3.714 million units, slightly below the same period in 2024.

That matters because 2024 was already the slowest year since 1995, with just 4.06 million homes changing hands. For 2025 to merely tie that dismal figure—and avoid setting a new three-decade low—December sales would need to jump 6.1% before seasonal adjustment.

That's a tall order, but not impossible given November's momentum.

What It Means for 2026

Industry observers see the November data as a potential turning point rather than a one-month blip. If mortgage rates continue their gradual descent—most forecasters expect the 30-year fixed to end 2026 around 5.9%—and wage growth remains solid, the conditions that created November's surge should persist.

For prospective buyers, the message is clear: the window of opportunity may be opening. With inventory still tight in most markets and competition already picking up, those waiting for rates to drop further might find themselves in bidding wars reminiscent of 2021.

"The buyers who've been sitting on the sidelines watching and waiting are starting to get back in the game. November's numbers suggest the thaw has finally begun."

— Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors

The key question now is whether this momentum can carry into 2026, or whether it represents pent-up demand that will quickly exhaust itself. Either way, the housing market's pulse just got noticeably stronger.