Nvidia Targets February for H200 China Shipments Worth Up to 80,000 Chips

Nvidia is wasting no time. According to Reuters, the chipmaker has informed Chinese clients that it plans to begin shipping its H200 AI chips by mid-February 2026—just weeks before the Lunar New Year holiday and mere days after the Trump administration takes office for final policy reviews.

The timeline is aggressive, the volumes are substantial, and the implications for the global AI race are significant.

The Numbers

Nvidia aims to ship 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules in the initial wave, equivalent to approximately 80,000 individual H200 chips. The company will draw from existing inventory to fulfill these orders rather than waiting for new production.

At current prices, the first shipment could represent several billion dollars in revenue—a meaningful chunk of Nvidia's quarterly results and a significant boost to its China business, which has been constrained by export restrictions for years.

Who's Buying

Chinese tech giants have been scrambling to secure allocations. Alibaba and ByteDance—parent company of TikTok—are among the companies in active discussions with Nvidia about large orders. Both firms are building massive AI infrastructure and have been limited to the less powerful H20 chip until now.

The H200 is approximately six times more powerful than the H20, making it a transformative upgrade for Chinese AI development. Cloud providers, autonomous vehicle companies, and AI research labs are all potential buyers.

The Policy Framework

President Trump announced on December 8 that Nvidia would be permitted to sell H200 chips to China, subject to two key conditions: a 25% revenue-sharing fee paid to the U.S. government, and Commerce Department licensing for individual buyers.

This arrangement represents a middle ground—neither a complete ban nor unrestricted access. Chinese companies get the chips they need, Nvidia gets access to a massive market, and the U.S. government collects a fee while maintaining buyer vetting.

Regulatory Uncertainty

The path isn't entirely clear. The Commerce Department has sent license applications to the State, Energy, and Defense Departments for review—a process that could take up to 30 days. While initial approvals appear to be proceeding, the inter-agency review adds uncertainty.

Meanwhile, China itself has sent mixed signals. Some reports suggest Beijing may limit access to the H200, potentially as a negotiating tactic or out of concern about technology dependence on American suppliers.

Strategic Implications

For Nvidia, the February shipments represent a strategic opportunity. The company has watched its China business shrink as export controls blocked its most advanced chips. Reopening the China market—even with revenue-sharing requirements—addresses that constraint.

For China's AI industry, access to H200 chips could accelerate development significantly. The performance gap between Chinese and American AI systems has partly reflected the hardware gap. Better chips mean faster training, larger models, and more competitive products.

The Blackwell Question

Notably, the H200 is not Nvidia's most advanced chip. The newer Blackwell generation remains firmly restricted from export to China. This creates a tiered system: China gets access to powerful but not cutting-edge hardware, maintaining America's technical lead while allowing commercial sales.

Whether this arrangement persists depends on how the new administration approaches tech competition with China. The February shipments may establish facts on the ground before policy debates fully play out.

Market Reaction

Nvidia shares have risen on the news, with investors welcoming the return of China revenue. Analysts estimate the China market could contribute several billion dollars to Nvidia's topline if the export framework holds.

The company's stock remains near all-time highs, reflecting both AI enthusiasm and the resolution of China-related uncertainty.

The Bottom Line

Nvidia's push to ship H200 chips to China by February reflects a calculated bet that the current policy window will hold. If successful, it reopens one of the world's largest AI markets to America's dominant chipmaker. The race to deliver 80,000 chips before Lunar New Year has begun.