The GLP-1 drug market has never been more competitive—or more consequential for investors. After a devastating 50% stock decline in 2025, Novo Nordisk is launching its most important product in years: an oral version of Wegovy, the first GLP-1 pill ever approved for obesity treatment.

The $149 Gambit

Novo Nordisk's pricing strategy signals the urgency of its position. The oral Wegovy will debut at pharmacies and select telehealth providers with a $149 monthly savings offer for the 1.5-milligram starting dose—a dramatic discount from the $499 monthly list price of the injectable version.

The company has also slashed prices across its GLP-1 portfolio. Ozempic and injectable Wegovy now carry a $349 monthly price tag for existing patients, down from $499. New patients can access the two lowest doses at $199 monthly for the first two months.

"The marketable development for Wegovy and Ozempic is a must-win battle for Novo's new CEO and board."

— CNBC analysis of Novo Nordisk's strategic position

The Weight-Loss Numbers

Clinical trials for oral Wegovy delivered impressive results that could justify the aggressive pricing. Patients lost an average of 16.6% of their body weight over 64 weeks—roughly comparable to the injectable version, though with the convenience of a daily pill rather than weekly injections.

For the 100 million Americans classified as obese, the pill form eliminates the needle anxiety that has kept many from trying GLP-1 medications. Analysts believe this could dramatically expand the addressable market beyond current penetration rates.

Eli Lilly's Growing Shadow

The competitive pressure driving Novo's strategy is unmistakable. Eli Lilly's Zepbound has captured significant market share by positioning itself as the superior weight-loss treatment, forcing Novo to play catch-up in a market it once dominated.

Eli Lilly isn't standing still. The Indianapolis-based company expects FDA approval for its own oral obesity drug, orforglipron, by the second quarter of 2026. When it arrives, the pill-versus-pill competition will intensify further.

The Valuation Case

At current prices, Novo Nordisk trades at just 13 times expected 2025 earnings—a bargain valuation for a company that dominated pharmaceutical headlines for years. The stock's dividend yield has climbed to 3.3%, near its highest level on record.

But cheap can always get cheaper. The company must prove that oral Wegovy can reverse its market share losses while maintaining margins despite aggressive discounting.

The TrumpRx Factor

Adding complexity to the pricing landscape is the Trump administration's TrumpRx platform, which launched on January 2. Through this government initiative, the average monthly cost of weight-loss injections is expected to start around $350 and fall to approximately $250 within two years.

This government intervention creates both opportunity and risk. Broader access could expand the market dramatically, but continued pricing pressure may squeeze margins for years to come.

The Medicare Cliff Looms

Wall Street is already looking ahead to what analysts call the "Medicare Cliff"—January 2027, when the $274 negotiated price kicks in for Medicare Part D. This regulatory milestone could trigger a "race to the bottom" in pricing as Novo and Lilly compete for long-term contracts with private insurers.

What Investors Should Watch

The oral Wegovy launch represents a pivotal test for Novo Nordisk's new leadership team. Key metrics to monitor include:

  • Prescription volume: Early adoption rates will signal whether the pill form can unlock new patient segments
  • Gross margins: The $149 promotional pricing will pressure profitability in early quarters
  • Competitive response: Eli Lilly's counter-moves and orforglipron approval timeline
  • Insurance coverage: Which payers add oral Wegovy to formularies, and at what reimbursement rates

The Bottom Line

Novo Nordisk enters 2026 at an inflection point. The oral Wegovy launch could mark the beginning of a turnaround for shareholders who endured a brutal 2025, or it could prove too little, too late against an increasingly formidable Eli Lilly.

With a 50% stock decline already priced in, the risk-reward calculus has shifted. But in a market where first-mover advantage matters enormously, Novo's months-long head start with oral GLP-1s could determine whether it reclaims its crown or watches Lilly cement its dominance in the most valuable drug category of our era.