MSCI's January 15 Ruling Could Force $15 Billion in Bitcoin Treasury Stock Selloffs

In a little-noticed development that could reshape the landscape for publicly traded Bitcoin-holding companies, index giant MSCI is poised to deliver a consequential ruling on January 15, 2026. The decision: whether to exclude companies whose digital asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets from the firm's widely tracked Global Investable Market Indexes.

The stakes are enormous. Analysts project that an exclusion could trigger forced sales of $10 billion to $15 billion in shares across 39 publicly traded companies—a seismic event for a sector that has attracted significant institutional interest over the past two years.

The Companies in the Crosshairs

MSCI's preliminary list names 39 companies that could face either immediate removal or permanent exclusion from its benchmarks. The most prominent among them: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the software company turned Bitcoin accumulation vehicle led by Michael Saylor.

Strategy accounts for a staggering 74.5% of the total impacted market capitalization at $84.1 billion. The company currently holds over 672,000 BTC—worth approximately $61 billion—making it by far the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world.

Other affected names include Japan's Metaplanet, which has aggressively accumulated Bitcoin as part of its treasury strategy, and numerous smaller players that have followed Strategy's pioneering approach.

Why MSCI Is Considering Exclusion

The motivation behind MSCI's consultation stems from a fundamental question about what belongs in a broad market index. The index provider argues that companies with heavy cryptocurrency exposure deviate from standard corporate operations, potentially introducing volatility patterns unsuitable for investors seeking diversified market exposure.

"The concern is that these companies behave more like crypto funds than operating businesses, which isn't what investors expect when they buy a broad market index fund."

— Industry analyst on MSCI's rationale

Critics counter that MSCI doesn't apply similar treatment to companies holding gold, bonds, or other non-operational assets. BitcoinForCorporations, an industry advocacy group, has called the approach "discriminatory" and gathered over 1,000 signatures on a petition opposing the exclusion.

Strategy Fights Back

Michael Saylor's firm has not taken the threat lying down. Strategy has engaged MSCI directly, issuing its own letter arguing against the proposed changes and working behind the scenes to rally opposition.

The company has also received support from prominent voices in the investment community. Strive Asset Management, the asset manager founded by Vivek Ramaswamy, submitted its own letter opposing the exclusion. Legendary investor Bill Miller has also voiced his concerns about the proposed rule change.

Despite these efforts, prediction markets aren't optimistic about Strategy's chances. Polymarket bettors currently give a 77% probability that Strategy will be delisted from MSCI indexes by March 31.

The Mechanics of Forced Selling

If MSCI proceeds with exclusion, the impact would be immediate and mechanical. Index funds and ETFs tracking MSCI benchmarks would be required to sell their positions in affected companies, regardless of their views on the underlying investment thesis.

The 18 current MSCI constituents facing removal represent $98 billion in float-adjusted market capitalization. An additional 21 non-constituents, worth $15 billion, would face permanent exclusion from ever joining the indexes.

The timing of implementation adds urgency. If approved on January 15, changes could take effect as soon as MSCI's February Index Review, giving passive investors little time to adjust.

Broader Implications for Corporate Bitcoin Adoption

Beyond the immediate financial impact, MSCI's decision could have lasting effects on the trend of corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. The so-called "corporate treasury" strategy, which Strategy pioneered in 2020, has attracted dozens of imitators seeking to leverage Bitcoin's potential appreciation.

An exclusion from major indexes would create a significant disincentive for public companies considering Bitcoin accumulation. Being removed from benchmark indexes typically reduces a company's investor base, liquidity, and overall valuation multiple.

Conversely, if MSCI decides against exclusion—or creates a new category for digital asset companies—it could validate the corporate Bitcoin strategy and potentially accelerate adoption.

What Investors Should Watch

The January 15 decision date is now just 11 days away. Investors with exposure to Strategy or other Bitcoin treasury companies should prepare for potential volatility regardless of the outcome.

A favorable ruling could trigger a relief rally, while exclusion would likely spark immediate selling pressure as passive funds rebalance. Either way, the decision will set an important precedent for how traditional financial infrastructure treats Bitcoin-focused public companies.

For the broader market, MSCI's ruling represents another chapter in the ongoing integration—or segregation—of digital assets into the traditional financial system. The answer may not satisfy everyone, but it will certainly clarify the rules of engagement for years to come.