Wall Street's largest banks kick off fourth-quarter earnings season this week, closing the books on what proved to be their best year since the pandemic. JPMorgan Chase leads off Tuesday morning, followed by a parade of major financial institutions whose results will set the tone for 2026 and reveal how the industry is positioning for a changed interest rate landscape.

The stakes are high. All six major banks outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, with stocks rallying on resurgent investment banking activity, resilient consumer spending, and the prospect of a more favorable regulatory environment. Whether that momentum continues depends on what this week's numbers—and management commentary—reveal about the year ahead.

The Earnings Calendar

Here's when each major bank reports:

  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM): Tuesday, January 13, 8:30 AM ET
  • Citigroup (C): Wednesday, January 14
  • Wells Fargo (WFC): Wednesday, January 14
  • Bank of America (BAC): Wednesday, January 14
  • Goldman Sachs (GS): Thursday, January 15, 7:30 AM ET
  • Morgan Stanley (MS): Thursday, January 15

JPMorgan: Setting the Tone

As America's largest bank by assets, JPMorgan's results typically set expectations for the sector. Analysts are watching closely:

Earnings expectations: Wall Street consensus calls for earnings per share between $4.87 and $5.01 on revenue of approximately $45.65 billion—a 6.8% year-over-year increase.

Net interest income: The bank has guided for quarterly NII of roughly $25 billion, bringing full-year 2025 NII to approximately $95.8 billion. With rates now lower than early 2025, the trajectory of this key metric in 2026 will be closely watched.

Credit quality: Of particular interest is the impact of JPMorgan's acquisition of the Apple Card portfolio. The bank is expected to record approximately $2.2 billion in provisions related to this purchase, which adds substantial credit card exposure to its consumer business.

Investment banking: After a banner year for deal activity, investors want to hear about the pipeline for 2026. Global M&A volume surged 42% in 2025 to $5.1 trillion, and banks with strong advisory and underwriting franchises benefited significantly.

Goldman Sachs: The Investment Banking Pure Play

Goldman Sachs offers the clearest read on Wall Street's deal-making and trading businesses. Expectations are for $11.69 EPS on revenue of $14.53 billion.

The bank enters 2026 having completed its exit from consumer banking—the Marcus experiment that proved costly—and refocused on its core institutional strengths. Investors will watch for:

  • Trading revenue: How did fixed income and equities trading perform in Q4's volatile environment?
  • Advisory fees: Did the M&A surge continue through year-end?
  • Asset management: Progress on growing this more stable revenue stream
  • 2026 outlook: Management's view on deal activity and market conditions

The Bigger Picture: Banks in 2026

Beyond individual quarterly results, this earnings week will reveal how banks are positioning for a fundamentally different environment.

Interest rates: The Federal Reserve cut rates 175 basis points over the past 16 months, bringing the fed funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%. This compression squeezes net interest margins—the spread between what banks earn on loans and pay on deposits. Banks must demonstrate they can grow loan volumes and non-interest income to offset margin pressure.

Loan demand: With rates lower, is lending activity picking up? Consumer and commercial loan growth will indicate whether rate cuts are stimulating the credit demand the Fed hopes for.

Credit quality: After years of predicting deterioration that never arrived, are banks finally seeing stress? Delinquencies in credit cards and auto loans have ticked higher, and any acceleration will worry investors.

Capital returns: Banks have substantial excess capital and have been aggressive with buybacks. Commentary on 2026 capital allocation plans—dividends, repurchases, and M&A—will interest shareholders.

What the 2025 Rally Priced In

Bank stocks rallied substantially in 2025, raising the bar for what earnings must deliver. The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) significantly outperformed the broader market, with individual banks posting even larger gains.

This rally reflected several expectations:

  • Investment banking fees would rebound—confirmed
  • Credit quality would remain manageable—so far, correct
  • Regulatory burden would ease—still developing
  • Rate cuts would boost lending—remains to be seen

For stocks to continue rallying, banks need to meet these expectations while pointing to continued growth ahead. Any disappointment could trigger profit-taking after strong 2025 gains.

Regulatory Wild Cards

Bank investors are also watching Washington. The Department of Justice's investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, announced this weekend, adds uncertainty to monetary policy outlook. Powell has characterized the probe as politically motivated interference with central bank independence.

Beyond the Powell drama, banks are hoping for regulatory relief under the new administration. Basel III endgame rules, which would require substantially higher capital levels, remain under review. Any indication of softer capital requirements would be bullish for bank stocks and shareholder returns.

Consumer Health Check

Large banks provide a window into American consumer finances. JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo collectively serve tens of millions of deposit and credit card customers. Their commentary on spending patterns, savings rates, and credit behavior offers real-time economic intelligence.

Key questions investors want answered:

  • Are consumers still spending freely, or are budgets tightening?
  • Is credit card delinquency stabilizing or accelerating?
  • How are deposit balances trending—are pandemic savings finally exhausted?
  • What's happening with mortgage demand as rates fall below 6%?

Investment Banking Outlook

Perhaps the most important forward-looking indicator will be management commentary on deal pipelines. The Financial Times described 2025 as the best year for US investment banking since the pandemic, with revenues approaching $38 billion.

Can this momentum continue? Factors supporting deal activity include:

  • Private equity firms sitting on record levels of undeployed capital
  • Corporate boards seeking growth through M&A as organic growth slows
  • IPO market reopening after a multi-year drought
  • Lower rates reducing financing costs for leveraged transactions

However, economic uncertainty and potential tariff disruptions could give pause to some deal-makers. Bank management perspectives on the M&A and IPO outlook will significantly influence sector sentiment.

What to Watch For

As earnings roll out this week, investors should focus on several key themes:

NII guidance: How do banks see net interest income trending as rate cuts flow through loan portfolios?

Credit commentary: Any signs of accelerating stress in consumer or commercial portfolios?

Deal pipelines: Is the investment banking resurgence continuing into 2026?

Expense management: JPMorgan has warned 2026 expenses could reach $105 billion. Are other banks also guiding higher costs?

Capital allocation: Buyback and dividend plans for the year ahead

Economic outlook: CEO perspectives on growth, inflation, and policy risks

The Bottom Line

Bank earnings week offers the first comprehensive look at how America's financial giants closed 2025 and what they see ahead. After a strong year that rewarded shareholders handsomely, the pressure is on to demonstrate that growth can continue in a lower-rate environment.

JPMorgan's Tuesday morning report will set the tone. If the nation's largest bank delivers solid results with optimistic guidance, bank stocks could extend their rally. Disappointment, however, might trigger the profit-taking that some investors have been anticipating after exceptional 2025 gains.

For the broader market, bank earnings also matter as a read on economic health. These institutions touch nearly every corner of the economy—consumer spending, business investment, housing, and capital markets. Their results reveal not just their own prospects, but the state of American finance heading into 2026.