American business leaders are entering 2026 with a distinctive mindset: confident about their own companies' prospects, but deeply uncertain about the broader economic landscape. That's the central finding from JPMorgan Chase's annual Business Leaders Outlook survey, which polled nearly 2,500 small and midsize business owners in late 2025.

The survey reveals a striking divergence. Nearly three-quarters (73%) of midsize business leaders expect to increase revenue in 2026, and 64% project higher profits. Yet when asked about the national economy, optimism has collapsed—only 39% express confidence in the country's economic direction, down sharply from 65% a year ago.

The Optimism Gap

This disconnect between micro and macro confidence is one of the defining features of the current business environment. Companies feel in control of their own destinies—able to raise prices, improve operations, and adapt to challenges—but see the broader environment as fraught with risk.

"Middle market business leaders are beginning 2026 with a renewed sense of optimism after navigating a year of heightened uncertainty. They're bullish on their own businesses even as they remain cautious about the economy at large."

— Melissa Smith, Co-Head of Commercial Banking at JPMorgan

The numbers bear this out. When asked about their own company's outlook for 2026, 71% of midsize business leaders expressed optimism. But just 51% said they don't expect a recession in 2026—meaning nearly half either expect an economic downturn or remain uncertain.

Top Concerns for 2026

The survey identified the issues keeping business leaders up at night:

  • Economic uncertainty (49%): The top concern reflects anxiety about interest rates, inflation persistence, and policy shifts.
  • Revenue and sales growth (33%): Even profitable companies worry about maintaining momentum in an uncertain environment.
  • Tariffs (31%): Trade policy uncertainty is affecting planning for companies with international supply chains or export markets.
  • Labor costs and availability (31%): Despite a cooling labor market, finding and retaining skilled workers remains challenging.
  • Inflation and input costs (28%): While headline inflation has moderated, business input costs remain elevated in many sectors.

Growth Strategies in Focus

Despite the concerns, business leaders are pursuing aggressive growth strategies. The survey found:

  • 58% plan to introduce new products or services
  • 53% are looking to expand into new domestic or international markets
  • 49% are pursuing strategic partnerships or investments
  • 48% still plan to expand their workforce
  • 39% are considering mergers and acquisitions

This growth orientation suggests that businesses, while cautious, see opportunities amid the uncertainty. Many appear to be positioning for market share gains, betting that competitors may be too defensive.

The AI Factor

Artificial intelligence is increasingly central to business planning, though its impact on employment remains nuanced. The survey found that 60% of midsize business leaders expect AI will have no impact on headcount in 2026—contradicting fears of immediate, widespread displacement.

However, the remaining 40% do anticipate AI-driven workforce changes, and the technology is reshaping how companies operate. Among small businesses, 59% now view AI as essential for competitiveness within three years, and 61% expect to use it to streamline operations.

"Small business owners are operating with a mix of optimism and pragmatism. They're embracing AI and new technologies while building maneuvering room for continued economic pressures."

— Ben Walter, CEO of Chase for Business

Building Financial Resilience

Perhaps the most telling finding is how businesses are preparing for potential turbulence. Many are building defensive positions even as they pursue growth:

  • 47% are building cash reserves
  • 36% are renegotiating supplier terms
  • 35% are ramping up marketing and technology investments
  • 32% are diversifying revenue streams

This combination of offense and defense reflects a business community that has learned from recent volatility. The pandemic, supply chain disruptions, and inflation spikes of recent years have made resilience a priority alongside growth.

Implications for the Economy

The survey's findings have broader implications for economic performance in 2026. If businesses follow through on their hiring and expansion plans, it would support continued employment growth and consumer spending. The emphasis on new products and market expansion could drive investment spending, a key component of GDP growth.

However, the elevated level of uncertainty creates downside risks. If economic conditions deteriorate—through a policy shock, financial market stress, or unexpected recession—businesses have clearly indicated they're prepared to pull back quickly. The cash buffers being built could shift from defensive war chests to survival reserves.

For investors, the message is nuanced: corporate America expects to grow in 2026, but is doing so with one eye on the exit. The cautious optimism that defines the current moment could prove sustainable—or could give way quickly if conditions shift.