The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for November on Tuesday, providing a fresh data point in the ongoing debate about where the U.S. labor market stands and where it's headed. The numbers suggest a labor market that has moved past its pandemic-era extremes but remains fundamentally healthy.

The November Numbers

Job openings in the United States held relatively steady in October (the most recently reported data before today's release) at approximately 7.67 million—essentially flat from September's 7.66 million. That figure represents a significant cooling from the peak of over 12 million openings reached in 2022, but remains above pre-pandemic levels of roughly 7 million.

Today's November reading, released at 10:00 AM Eastern, comes against market expectations for a modest decline—which would mark the first monthly decrease in four consecutive months of increases or flat readings.

Key metrics from the latest available data:

  • Job openings: Approximately 7.7 million
  • Layoffs and discharges: 1.9 million (1.2% rate), little changed
  • Quits rate: Near historic lows at approximately 2.1%
  • Openings-to-unemployed ratio: Approximately 1.08 (down from 2.0 at peak)

What the Quits Rate Tells Us

Perhaps the most telling metric in the JOLTS report isn't job openings—it's the quits rate. The percentage of workers voluntarily leaving their jobs has fallen to levels not seen since 2014, signaling that employees have become more cautious about job changes as the labor market has normalized.

During the "Great Resignation" period of 2021-2022, workers quit in record numbers, confident they could find better opportunities elsewhere. That calculus has shifted. Today's workers are more likely to stay put, whether due to fewer opportunities, economic uncertainty, or satisfaction with current positions.

"The labor market has gone from a worker's market to something much closer to equilibrium. Employees still have bargaining power, but the days of easily jumping ship for a 20% raise are behind us."

— Labor market economist

Sector-Level Dynamics

Beneath the headline numbers, significant variation exists across sectors:

Sectors with elevated openings:

  • Healthcare and social assistance (persistent labor shortages)
  • Professional and business services
  • Government (state and local)

Sectors showing cooling:

  • Information technology (continued post-pandemic normalization)
  • Financial activities
  • Manufacturing (despite reshoring initiatives)

The accommodation and food services sector saw notable layoff increases in the October data—up 130,000—potentially signaling that consumer spending pressures are beginning to affect employment in hospitality and leisure industries.

Fed Policy Implications

For Federal Reserve watchers, the JOLTS data arrives at a critical moment. Markets currently price in two quarter-point rate cuts in 2026, with CME FedWatch data showing roughly 25% probability of a third reduction. The labor market's health is central to the Fed's dual mandate calculations.

A weaker-than-expected JOLTS print would bolster the case for rate cuts by suggesting the labor market has cooled sufficiently to reduce wage pressure concerns. Conversely, stronger-than-expected openings would support the Fed's patient approach, keeping the door open to holding rates steady longer.

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran recently argued that "well over 100 basis points" of cuts are justified in 2026, citing his view that underlying inflation pressures have faded once temporary distortions are stripped out. The JOLTS data will be one piece of evidence in that ongoing debate.

Friday's Main Event

While Tuesday's JOLTS release matters, the week's main labor market event arrives Friday with the December employment situation report. That release will provide the final monthly snapshot of 2025's employment picture, with forecasts suggesting December hiring will cap what analysts describe as the weakest employment year since 2009 in terms of monthly job gains.

The November unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, with 7.1 million Americans counted as unemployed. Key demographic breakdowns:

  • Adult men: 4.1% unemployment
  • Adult women: 4.1% unemployment
  • White workers: 3.9%
  • Black workers: 8.3%
  • Asian workers: 3.6%
  • Hispanic workers: 5.0%

Long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) accounted for 24.3% of all unemployed workers, a figure that bears watching as an indicator of labor market health.

Investment Considerations

For investors, the labor market data carries several implications:

  • Consumer spending: A stable but cooling labor market suggests consumer spending will remain positive but moderate—good for defensive consumer names, potentially challenging for discretionary plays dependent on strong wage growth.
  • Rate-sensitive sectors: Evidence of labor market softening supports rate cut expectations, benefiting real estate, utilities, and other rate-sensitive sectors.
  • Wage pressure: Reduced job openings and lower quits rates suggest wage pressure is easing, potentially supporting corporate margins even as revenue growth moderates.
  • Staffing companies: Firms like Robert Half and ManpowerGroup may face headwinds as hiring activity cools from previous peaks.

The Bigger Picture

The labor market that emerges from the JOLTS data is one that has largely completed its post-pandemic adjustment. The extraordinary imbalances of 2021-2022—when openings outnumbered unemployed workers by two to one—have normalized. What remains is a job market that, while cooler than its recent past, continues to offer opportunities for workers while allowing the Federal Reserve flexibility in its policy approach.

For American workers, the message is mixed: jobs remain available, but the extraordinary leverage that characterized the post-pandemic labor market has largely evaporated. The era of easy job-hopping for major salary bumps has passed, replaced by a market that rewards stability and skill development over mobility.