For three years, the IPO market has resembled a ghost town. After the exuberance of 2021—when companies raised over $150 billion in U.S. public offerings—issuance collapsed as rising interest rates and volatile markets made going public unappealing. But as 2026 begins, the long-awaited IPO revival may finally be at hand.

The Backlog Is Enormous

Private markets are bursting with companies that would have gone public in a normal environment. Hundreds of venture-backed startups have been waiting for favorable conditions, watching their employees' equity grow stale and their investors grow impatient.

2026 holds the promise that the IPO market may pick up again, with splashy names such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and crypto exchange Kraken potentially making waves. These aren't ordinary private companies—they're businesses that could individually rank among the largest public offerings in history.

"Across investment outlooks from more than 60 institutions compiled by Bloomberg News, the optimism is almost universal. The conditions for a meaningful IPO revival are finally coming together."

— Bloomberg 2026 Investment Outlook

Why the Market Thawed

Several factors are converging to create favorable IPO conditions:

Rate stability: After the Federal Reserve's three rate cuts in 2025, the trajectory of monetary policy has become clearer. Companies can now plan IPOs without fearing sudden rate spikes that destroy valuations.

Equity market strength: The S&P 500 hit record highs in early January, creating the positive sentiment backdrop that supports IPO pricing. Companies want to go public when buyers are confident.

Private market pressure: Venture capital firms need exits to return capital to their investors. After years of waiting, the pressure to pursue IPOs has become intense.

Valuation resets: Many private companies have marked down their valuations to realistic levels, reducing the risk of embarrassing post-IPO declines that plagued 2021 vintage offerings.

The Marquee Names

Several potential IPOs could define 2026:

SpaceX: Elon Musk's space company has been valued at $1.5 trillion in secondary market trading. A public offering would be the largest in American history and could make Musk the world's first trillionaire depending on how his stake is valued.

Anthropic: The AI company behind Claude is valued at over $350 billion after receiving significant investment from Amazon. An IPO would test whether public markets share private investors' enthusiasm for AI infrastructure companies.

Stripe: The payments giant has been IPO-ready for years but has delayed amid market volatility. With payments volumes normalizing and the company profitable, 2026 could finally be the year.

Kraken: The cryptocurrency exchange would provide public market exposure to crypto trading in a way that differs from Coinbase. Regulatory clarity from the CLARITY Act could remove a key overhang.

The First Movers

Early 2026 has already seen IPO activity return. Aktis Oncology broke the biotech IPO drought by raising $318 million in the first biotech offering of the year. The successful pricing suggests investor appetite is returning.

Shanghai Biren Technology's Hong Kong IPO—which raised $717 million and saw shares surge 120% on debut—demonstrates that global appetite for technology offerings remains strong when the story is compelling.

These early successes will likely encourage other companies to accelerate their IPO timelines, creating momentum that builds throughout the year.

What Could Go Wrong

The IPO revival isn't guaranteed. Several risks could derail the nascent recovery:

Market volatility: Any significant equity market correction would freeze IPO activity immediately. The pending Supreme Court tariff ruling and other policy uncertainties create tail risks.

Valuation gaps: Private and public market valuations still don't align for many companies. If sellers insist on 2021-era valuations, buyers won't materialize.

Interest rate reversals: If inflation resurges and the Fed pivots back to rate increases, the IPO window could slam shut.

Poor performance: Nothing kills IPO momentum faster than newly public companies disappointing investors. A few high-profile failures would set back the entire market.

The Investment Implications

An IPO revival has implications beyond the specific companies coming public:

  • Investment banks: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan would see investment banking fee income surge. Equity underwriting has been a weak spot—improvement would boost earnings.
  • Venture capital: Successful IPOs would validate VC portfolios and enable distributions to limited partners, potentially triggering new fundraising.
  • Market breadth: New public companies add to market diversity, potentially reducing the Magnificent Seven's index dominance.
  • Competition: In some cases, IPOs would create publicly traded competitors to incumbent giants.

How to Participate

Individual investors often struggle to access IPOs at offering prices. Strategies for participating in the IPO revival include:

Wait for the bounce: Many successful IPOs trade up significantly on the first day but then consolidate. Patient investors can often buy at better prices weeks after the offering.

Focus on quality: Not all IPOs are created equal. Profitable companies with established businesses tend to perform better than growth-at-any-cost offerings.

Consider the beneficiaries: Investment banks and exchanges benefit from IPO activity regardless of which specific companies go public.

The Year Ahead

The IPO market's return from hibernation may be the most important financial market story of 2026. Hundreds of private companies are watching early offerings for signals about when to launch their own.

If SpaceX, Anthropic, or other mega-IPOs come to market successfully, the floodgates could open. The combination of pent-up supply, improving conditions, and investor appetite for new opportunities suggests 2026 may finally deliver the IPO revival that has been promised—and delayed—for years.