Ali Moshiri's phone hasn't stopped ringing since Saturday. The former top Chevron executive, who spent years overseeing the oil giant's operations across Latin America, has found himself at the center of a gold rush—or perhaps more accurately, a black gold rush—following the dramatic capture and removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.

"I've had a dozen calls over the past 24 hours from potential investors," Moshiri told the Financial Times on Monday. "Interest in Venezuela has gone from zero to 99 percent."

The veteran oil executive is now racing to raise $2 billion for Venezuelan oil projects, positioning himself as a bridge between Western capital and a country that holds the world's largest proven oil reserves but has seen its production collapse under decades of mismanagement, sanctions, and socialist policies.

The Scale of the Opportunity

Venezuela sits atop an estimated 303 billion barrels of oil reserves—roughly 17% of the global total and more than any other nation on Earth. At its peak in the late 1990s, the country pumped 3.5 million barrels per day, making it one of the world's most important oil exporters.

Today, production has cratered to approximately 800,000 barrels per day, a fraction of its potential. The collapse reflects years of underinvestment, the exodus of skilled workers, U.S. sanctions, and the nationalization policies that drove out major international oil companies.

"Venezuela's oil reserves are estimated at 303 billion barrels or about 17% of the global total. The country's production peaked at 3.5 million barrels per day in the late 1990s but has declined significantly since then."

— Industry analysis

The arithmetic is compelling: if Venezuela could restore even half its historical production capacity, it would add nearly 1 million barrels per day to global supply—a meaningful contribution at a time when energy security has become a top priority for Western governments.

Chevron's Head Start

Among major U.S. oil companies, Chevron holds a significant advantage. It's the only American oil major that maintained operations in Venezuela throughout the Maduro era, thanks to special licenses that allowed it to continue joint ventures with state-owned oil company PDVSA.

Those joint ventures currently account for 23% of Venezuela's total output, giving Chevron both operational expertise and relationships that competitors will struggle to replicate quickly.

On Monday, Chevron began calling employees back to Venezuela as its crude exports to the U.S. resumed. An oil tanker chartered by the company carrying approximately 300,000 barrels of Venezuelan heavy crude departed for the U.S. Gulf Coast—the first such shipment since the beginning of the year.

Chevron's official statement was measured: "Chevron remains focused on the safety and wellbeing of our employees, as well as the integrity of our assets." But the stock told a different story, surging 5.1% on Monday as investors bet on the company's advantaged position.

The Government's Conditions

The Trump administration has made clear that U.S. oil companies won't receive something for nothing in Venezuela. White House and State Department officials have told executives that they'll need to invest significant capital quickly to revive the damaged oil industry if they want compensation for assets expropriated decades ago.

That's where funds like Moshiri's come in. Major oil companies, constrained by public market pressures and ESG considerations, may be reluctant to make large, risky bets on Venezuelan rehabilitation. Private capital, with longer time horizons and higher risk tolerance, could fill the gap.

The Challenges Ahead

For all the excitement, experienced oil executives caution that Venezuela's comeback will be neither quick nor easy. The country's petroleum infrastructure is in severe disrepair after years of neglect. Pipelines leak, refineries operate at a fraction of capacity, and much of the skilled workforce has emigrated.

Analysts estimate that crude output could increase by up to 500,000 barrels per day over the next two years—but only if Venezuela achieves political stability and U.S. companies invest aggressively. Those are significant "ifs."

  • Infrastructure rehabilitation: Billions needed to repair wells, pipelines, and processing facilities
  • Workforce rebuilding: Many skilled petroleum engineers left Venezuela; recruiting them back will take time
  • Political risk: The post-Maduro transition remains uncertain, and property rights questions linger
  • OPEC dynamics: How will Saudi Arabia and other producers respond to increased Venezuelan supply?

Oil Market Implications

Curiously, oil prices actually fell on Monday despite the Venezuela news. WTI crude dipped below $58 per barrel while Brent traded around $61—both near multi-month lows.

The muted reaction reflects the market's assessment that any meaningful increase in Venezuelan production is years away, not months. It also underscores that global oil supply remains ample, with OPEC+ maintaining production restraints amid concerns about surplus and subdued demand.

For now, Venezuela's oil renaissance remains more promise than reality. But for investors like Moshiri who are willing to take a long-term view, the combination of vast reserves, suppressed production, and changing political winds creates an opportunity that comes along once in a generation.

The $2 billion he's raising may be just the beginning. If Venezuela's transition proceeds smoothly, the country could eventually absorb tens of billions in petroleum investment—transforming both its economy and the global energy landscape.