Wall Street is increasingly bullish on copper heading into 2026, with major investment banks forecasting prices could surge to $12,000-$13,000 per metric ton—up from roughly $9,500 today. The thesis: a collision between constrained supply and exploding demand from AI data centers and the global energy transition.

J.P. Morgan Global Research sees copper reaching $12,500 per ton by the second quarter of 2026, averaging approximately $12,075 for the full year. UBS has raised its forecasts even higher, projecting $12,000 by the end of Q1 2026 and $13,000 by year-end. Citi analysts, anticipating U.S. copper hoarding amid tariff concerns, target $13,000 per ton in early 2026.

The Supply Side Crunch

Copper bulls point first to supply disruptions that have constrained the market's ability to meet growing demand. Two major incidents in late 2025 removed significant production capacity:

Grasberg Disaster: At Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia—one of the world's largest copper operations—800,000 metric tons of wet material poured into the primary block cave in a catastrophic incident that claimed seven workers' lives. A phased restart isn't expected until mid-2026, removing substantial production from the market.

Kamoa-Kakula Flooding: A seismic event at Ivanhoe Mines' flagship copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo caused flooding and forced temporary suspension of operations. The company has set 2026 guidance at 380,000-420,000 metric tons—well below the mine's potential capacity.

Beyond these acute disruptions, the industry faces structural challenges. According to the International Copper Study Group, mine production is expected to increase just 2.3% in 2026 to 23.86 million metric tons, while refined production grows only 0.9% to 28.58 million metric tons. Refined copper use is projected to grow 2.1% to 28.73 million metric tons—outpacing supply and creating a 150,000 metric ton deficit by year-end.

The Data Center Demand Explosion

While traditional copper demand drivers like construction and manufacturing remain important, it's the AI revolution that has analysts most excited about the metal's prospects.

Data centers are voracious consumers of copper. The facilities require massive amounts of electrical wiring, transformers, and power infrastructure—all copper-intensive applications. As AI workloads drive explosive growth in data center construction, copper demand is following.

"Data center demand remains an upside risk to forecasts. We expect approximately 475,000 metric tons of copper demand in data center installations in 2026, up by roughly 110,000 metric tons versus 2025."

— Commodity research analyst

BloombergNEF projects copper demand for the energy transition could triple by 2045, warning that the metal may enter structural deficit as early as 2026. Grid infrastructure and power systems are expected to drive more than 60% of copper demand growth through 2030.

The Contrarian View

Not everyone is bullish. Goldman Sachs Research takes a more conservative stance, expecting prices to remain in a range of $10,000-$11,000 and average $10,710 in the first half of 2026.

The bears point to several risk factors:

  • China's Economic Slowdown: The world's largest copper consumer continues to face economic headwinds that could dampen demand
  • Tariff Uncertainty: Trade policy changes could disrupt supply chains and create price volatility
  • Potential Demand Destruction: If prices rise too quickly, users may seek substitutes or delay projects

Bank of America splits the difference, forecasting an average price of $11,313 per ton in 2026—up 11% from 2025—with potential spikes to $15,000 per ton during supply disruptions.

The Investment Opportunity

For investors seeking copper exposure, several approaches exist:

Mining Stocks: Companies like Freeport-McMoRan, Southern Copper, and BHP offer leveraged exposure to copper prices through their mining operations.

ETFs: Copper-focused exchange-traded products provide direct commodity exposure without the company-specific risks of mining stocks.

Diversified Miners: Large diversified miners including Rio Tinto and Glencore offer copper exposure alongside other commodities.

The key risk for copper investors is timing. While the long-term supply/demand picture appears supportive, short-term price movements can be volatile and driven by factors ranging from Chinese economic data to trade policy announcements.

What to Watch in 2026

Several developments will determine whether copper achieves the bullish price targets:

  • Grasberg Restart Timeline: Any delays to Freeport's production recovery would tighten supply further
  • Chinese Stimulus Effectiveness: Beijing's ongoing economic support measures will influence demand
  • Data Center Construction Pace: Continued AI investment acceleration would boost copper consumption
  • Tariff Policy: Trade measures affecting copper flows could create regional price dislocations

For observers of the energy transition, copper represents a critical bottleneck. The metal is essential for electrification—from EVs to renewable power to grid upgrades—and supply growth hasn't kept pace with climate-driven demand projections. Whether this gap closes through higher prices, technological substitution, or demand destruction will be one of 2026's most important commodity stories.