When Robinhood Markets releases fourth-quarter 2025 results after the market closes on Monday, February 10, and Coinbase Global follows on Thursday, February 12, the numbers will arrive against the most punishing backdrop the cryptocurrency industry has faced since the collapse of FTX in late 2022. Bitcoin has plunged from a peak just above $126,000 in early October to roughly $63,000 as of Friday, a decline of approximately 50% that has wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars in market value and sent shockwaves through every corner of the digital asset ecosystem.
The timing could hardly be worse for two companies that had spent much of 2025 riding a crypto renaissance. Coinbase shares surged more than 80% during the first three quarters of the year as Bitcoin hit successive all-time highs. Robinhood's crypto trading revenue quadrupled year-over-year in the third quarter, helping the company post its strongest earnings since going public. Now both stocks have given back most of those gains, and investors want to know whether the fourth quarter's strong numbers can hold up in a market that has turned violently against digital assets.
What Drove the Crypto Crash
The collapse in cryptocurrency prices has been driven by a convergence of forces that undermined the narrative that carried Bitcoin to record highs. Institutional demand, the catalyst that powered the rally through much of 2025, has reversed sharply. U.S. exchange-traded funds tied to Bitcoin, which purchased 46,000 bitcoins during the same period last year, have become net sellers in 2026, according to data from CoinShares. The reversal reflects a broader "risk-off" shift across global markets as investors digest weaker economic data, elevated tariffs, and uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy.
The crash has been especially brutal for altcoins. Ethereum has fallen more than 33% in the past week alone. Solana touched $88, a two-year low. And the broader cryptocurrency market capitalization has contracted by more than $1.5 trillion from its peak, erasing gains that took months to accumulate in a matter of weeks.
"The 'digital gold' narrative has been thoroughly tested, and it failed. Bitcoin was supposed to be a safe haven in times of macro uncertainty. Instead, it traded like a leveraged tech stock on the way down, which is exactly what it is."
Mike Novogratz, CEO, Galaxy Digital
Robinhood: Monday's Preview
Robinhood will report after the bell on Monday with analysts expecting the company to show significant year-over-year growth in cryptocurrency trading revenue, reflecting the strong activity that characterized the fourth quarter before the crash intensified. The company's crypto revenue surged to $61 million in Q3 2025, up from $23 million a year earlier, and Q4 is expected to show further gains as Bitcoin was still trading above $100,000 for most of the quarter.
The critical question for Robinhood is not the backward-looking Q4 numbers but the forward outlook. Crypto trading revenue accounted for roughly 18% of Robinhood's total net revenue in the third quarter, up from 12% a year earlier. If the crash persists and trading volumes dry up, as they typically do during crypto downturns, that revenue stream could contract sharply, removing a key growth driver from the company's story.
On the positive side, Robinhood has diversified meaningfully since the meme stock era. The company's retirement products, margin lending, and Gold subscription service now contribute a larger share of revenue than at any previous point. Net deposits were $11.6 billion in the third quarter, suggesting that customers are parking long-term savings on the platform even if speculative trading activity declines.
Coinbase: Thursday's Main Event
Coinbase faces an even more concentrated exposure to the crypto downturn. The company generates approximately 75% of its revenue from transaction fees tied to cryptocurrency trading, making it far more sensitive to price declines and volume contractions than Robinhood's more diversified model.
Analysts expect Coinbase to report fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $2.1 billion, reflecting the elevated trading activity that accompanied Bitcoin's final push above $120,000 in October and November. Earnings per share estimates center around $2.40, which would represent a strong quarter by any historical standard.
But the market is pricing in pain ahead. Coinbase shares have fallen roughly 45% from their 52-week high, and the stock traded below $150 for the first time since mid-2024 on Friday. The company's valuation has compressed from a peak of more than $80 billion to approximately $38 billion, reflecting the market's expectation that the revenue boom of late 2025 is unlikely to be sustained.
The Structural Question
Beyond the quarterly numbers, both earnings reports will force a reckoning with a question that has haunted cryptocurrency exchanges since the first Bitcoin bust in 2018: is this a cyclical business or a secular growth story? During bull markets, crypto exchanges generate extraordinary revenue and profits. During bear markets, trading volumes collapse, transaction fees evaporate, and the companies are left with cost structures built for activity levels that no longer exist.
Coinbase has attempted to address this vulnerability by building subscription and services revenue, which includes staking fees, custody services, and its Base blockchain platform. That segment generated $556 million in Q3 2025, up 66% year-over-year. If subscription revenue continues to grow even as transaction fees decline, it would demonstrate a more durable business model than the purely transaction-dependent one that punished Coinbase during the 2022 crash.
Robinhood's approach has been different: rather than deepening its crypto-native offerings, the company has broadened its financial services platform to reduce its dependence on any single asset class. The recent launch of futures trading, the expansion of its retirement product suite, and the growing contribution of margin lending all serve to insulate the company from the crypto cycle.
What It Means for the 46 Million Americans Who Own Crypto
The earnings reports from Coinbase and Robinhood will also carry a message for the estimated 46 million Americans who own digital assets. The crash has erased gains that many retail investors assumed were permanent, and the speed of the decline, nearly 30% in a single week, has shaken confidence in the asset class at a moment when institutional enthusiasm is waning.
For investors who bought Bitcoin above $100,000, the losses are significant and real. For those who hold through the exchanges reporting this week, the health of those platforms matters directly: Coinbase and Robinhood are the custodians of billions of dollars in customer assets, and their financial stability during a downturn is not a theoretical concern but a practical one.
This week's earnings will not resolve the crypto debate. They will, however, reveal whether the two largest publicly traded crypto-adjacent companies in America have built businesses that can withstand the kind of downturn that destroyed their predecessors. After the collapse of FTX, Celsius, Voyager, and BlockFi during the last crypto winter, the stakes of that question could not be higher.
