Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) shares have climbed to a new 52-week high above $250, capping a remarkable recovery that has seen the aerospace giant's stock advance nearly 10% since the start of the year. The rally has been fueled by growing Wall Street confidence in Boeing's turnaround, culminating in Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned naming it his "top pick in the U.S. for 2026."

Harned raised his price target on Boeing to $298, implying additional upside of approximately 20% from current levels. The bullish call centers on Boeing's massive defense backlog and the company's improving commercial aviation outlook as it moves past years of production challenges and regulatory scrutiny.

The Defense Backlog Story

Central to Bernstein's thesis is Boeing's defense business, which boasts a backlog estimated at approximately $76 billion. This figure provides years of revenue visibility and represents a stable foundation as the commercial aviation segment continues its recovery.

The defense backlog includes major programs such as:

  • The KC-46 aerial refueling tanker for the U.S. Air Force
  • F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets
  • P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft
  • Rotorcraft programs including the CH-47 Chinook and AH-64 Apache
  • Satellite and space systems contracts

With geopolitical tensions elevated globally and defense spending on the rise in both the United States and allied nations, Boeing's defense portfolio is positioned to benefit from sustained military investment.

Commercial Aviation Recovery Gains Momentum

Beyond defense, Boeing's commercial airplane division is showing signs of genuine recovery. The company maintains a record commercial backlog of approximately $600 billion, representing nearly 6,000 aircraft orders that will take years to fulfill.

Tigress Financial set a price target of $275 on Boeing, noting that this record backlog "ensures revenue visibility for years ahead." The substantial order book suggests airlines remain confident in Boeing's ability to deliver aircraft despite the production disruptions that plagued the company in recent years.

Q4 Earnings Preview

Boeing is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on Tuesday, January 27. Consensus estimates project a loss of approximately $0.37 to $0.44 per share on revenue of $22.4 billion—a dramatic improvement from the $5.90 per share loss reported in the year-ago quarter.

The expected revenue figure of around $22.67 billion would represent a 48.8% surge compared to the prior year, reflecting increased aircraft deliveries and stronger defense revenue. While Boeing remains unprofitable on a quarterly basis, the trajectory toward breakeven is encouraging investors.

"Wall Street forecasts Boeing will return to profitability with earnings of $3.00 per share next year, implying growth of 111%."

— Wall Street Consensus Estimates

Why Analysts Are Turning Bullish

Several factors are driving the renewed optimism around Boeing:

  • Production stabilization: After years of production disruptions related to the 737 MAX and supply chain issues, Boeing's manufacturing operations appear to be finding their footing
  • Regulatory progress: The company has made strides in addressing FAA concerns and quality control issues
  • Travel demand: Global air travel continues to recover, with airlines needing new aircraft to meet passenger demand and replace aging fleets
  • Defense tailwinds: Increased defense spending provides a buffer against commercial aviation volatility
  • Valuation reset: Years of underperformance have brought the stock's valuation to levels that some analysts view as attractive

The 737 MAX Certification Progress

A key catalyst for Boeing's recent stock performance has been progress on the 737 MAX certification front. The company has worked closely with the Federal Aviation Administration to address safety and quality concerns that emerged following two fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019.

While regulatory oversight remains intense, the path forward for MAX production and deliveries appears clearer than at any point in the past several years. Increased MAX deliveries would directly benefit Boeing's revenue and cash flow, potentially accelerating the return to profitability.

Stock Performance Analysis

Boeing shares have demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2026, climbing from a 52-week low of $128.88 to the current level above $250. The stock now trades significantly above its 52-week average of $201.65, suggesting momentum remains with the bulls.

Key technical levels to watch:

  • 52-week high: $254.14 (recently tested)
  • Current price: ~$250
  • Bernstein target: $298 (20% upside)
  • 52-week average: $201.65

Risks and Considerations

Despite the bullish outlook, investors should consider several risk factors:

  • Execution risk on ramping up production remains elevated
  • Supply chain disruptions could impact delivery schedules
  • Regulatory scrutiny continues, with any new issues potentially derailing progress
  • Competition from Airbus remains intense in the commercial market
  • Defense contracts can be subject to political and budgetary pressures

For investors with a multi-year time horizon, Boeing's combination of a massive order backlog, improving fundamentals, and discounted valuation relative to historical norms may present an attractive opportunity. However, the path to profitability will require consistent execution on production and delivery targets.