When Boeing releases its fourth-quarter 2025 results on Tuesday, January 27, investors will be looking for confirmation of something the company has promised for years: a genuine turnaround. After the 2024 midair door incident that rocked the 737 Max program, production chaos, and billions in losses, Boeing appears to finally have momentum—but the aerospace giant's CEO Kelly Ortberg is warning that the hard work is far from over.

A Year of Rebuilding

Boeing is set to report that it delivered the most airplanes since 2018 last year, the clearest sign yet that its production lines have stabilized. The FAA, which had capped 737 Max production at 38 aircraft per month following the January 2024 Alaska Airlines incident, recently lifted that limit to 42. Boeing expects to ramp up further to 47 aircraft per month in 2026—a pace that would significantly boost revenue and cash flow.

The Dreamliner program is also gaining steam, with Boeing expected to produce about eight 787s per month in early 2026. Unlike 2025, when much of the delivery volume came from clearing inventory backlog, 2026 handovers will largely represent fresh production—a healthier dynamic for the business.

Defense Contracts Provide Ballast

Perhaps most encouraging for investors has been Boeing's defense business momentum. In a remarkable stretch spanning just over a week in late December and early January, Boeing secured approximately $17.5 billion in new government contracts:

  • $8.6 billion to build at least 25 F-15IA aircraft for the Israeli Air Force, with options for 25 more
  • $4.2 billion for E-4B contractor logistic services
  • $2.7 billion for AH-64 Apache helicopter post-production support
  • Additional contracts for B-52 commercial engine replacement

These contracts provide revenue visibility and help offset commercial aviation volatility, giving Boeing a more balanced portfolio as it navigates its recovery.

Alaska Airlines' Vote of Confidence

In early January, Alaska Airlines announced its largest-ever aircraft order: 105 Boeing 737-10 jets plus options for 35 more, along with five 787 Dreamliners for long-haul expansion. The order represents a significant endorsement of Boeing's recovery from one of the airlines most directly affected by the 2024 door incident—an Alaska Airlines flight.

The timing was strategic, signaling that major customers believe Boeing has addressed its quality control issues and can deliver aircraft on schedule. For Boeing, such orders are essential to rebuilding the production rates necessary for profitability.

What Wall Street Expects

Analysts have grown increasingly optimistic about Boeing's trajectory. Deutsche Bank projects the stock could reach $245, while JPMorgan sees it hitting $240—both well above current levels around $217. The stock is up approximately 30% over the past twelve months, trading near its 52-week high.

Key metrics investors will scrutinize in Tuesday's report include:

  • Free cash flow: Boeing's path to turning cash-flow positive is crucial for reducing its heavy debt load
  • Delivery numbers: Confirmation of the seven-year high in aircraft deliveries
  • 2026 production guidance: Any updates on the ramp to 47 737 Max jets per month
  • Order backlog: The health of Boeing's commercial order book

Risks Remain

CEO Kelly Ortberg's recent memo to employees struck a cautionary tone: "To continue our turnaround, we still have important work ahead of us—perhaps even more than what we accomplished last year." The company faces ongoing challenges including supply chain constraints, a skilled labor shortage, and the ever-present scrutiny from regulators and the public.

"Boeing heads into 2026 with a clear—if still fragile—roadmap for getting new jets certified, raising production and turning cash-flow positive again."

— Aerospace industry analysis

The 737 Max program, while stabilizing, remains under intense regulatory oversight. Any new quality issues could trigger production caps and erode the trust Boeing has slowly rebuilt with airlines, passengers, and regulators.

The Investment Case

For investors considering Boeing, the Tuesday earnings report represents more than a quarterly update—it's a test of whether the company's turnaround narrative can withstand scrutiny. A strong report with positive cash flow guidance could propel the stock toward analyst targets. A disappointment could reignite concerns about execution risk.

Boeing's story in 2026 will be defined by its ability to deliver on production promises while maintaining the safety standards that the flying public demands. Tuesday's numbers will provide the first major data point of the year.