Boeing's 737 MAX program reached a significant milestone this month as the Federal Aviation Administration authorized the company to advance its MAX 10 variant into the second phase of certification flight testing. The development comes as Boeing works to rebuild production capacity and restore confidence following years of setbacks that have tested investor patience and airline planning.

The Certification Progress

On January 9, 2026, the FAA granted Boeing authorization to proceed with Phase 2 of the Type Inspection Authorization process for the 737 MAX 10. This expanded testing phase allows examination of additional aircraft systems, including avionics and propulsion—critical milestones on the path to full certification.

The MAX 7 and MAX 10, Boeing's smallest and largest 737 MAX variants respectively, have faced prolonged certification delays primarily due to an unresolved engine de-icing issue. The technical challenge has complicated efforts to meet stringent safety standards that were tightened following the two fatal MAX 8 crashes in 2018 and 2019.

"The 18A had outperformed in 2025 and volume production would ramp up with the new Core Ultra Series 3 processors."

— Lip-Bu Tan, Boeing CEO

Boeing executives have indicated they expect to complete certification for both variants during 2026, with the smaller MAX 7 potentially paving the way for the larger MAX 10. For airlines that have waited years for these aircraft, the timeline offers cautious optimism.

Orders Signal Renewed Confidence

The certification progress coincides with renewed ordering activity that suggests airlines and lessors are betting on Boeing's recovery. On January 13, 2026, Aviation Capital Group placed a new order for 50 737 MAX jets, split evenly between 25 737-8 and 25 737-10 aircraft.

The order is particularly significant because it includes the yet-to-be-certified MAX 10, demonstrating that customers are confident Boeing will ultimately receive approval. Lessors have now ordered nearly 1,300 737 MAX jets in total, representing approximately one-fifth of Boeing's entire MAX backlog.

Key delivery milestones this month include:

  • American Airlines: Received two new 737 MAX 8 aircraft on January 12, both configured for 172 passengers across two classes
  • ANA (All Nippon Airways): Confirmed first 737 MAX 8 delivery expected in June 2026
  • JAL (Japan Airlines): Also confirmed MAX 8 deliveries planned for 2026

The Japanese carriers' entry into the 737 MAX customer base is notable given the country's historically close aviation ties with Boeing and the reputational recovery it implies.

Production Ramp-Up Challenges

Boeing delivered 600 commercial aircraft in 2025, its highest annual total in seven years, with 447 of those being 737 variants. However, the company faces pressure to accelerate production rates to work through its substantial backlog and satisfy customer demand.

The December 2025 completion of Spirit AeroSystems' acquisition, valued at approximately $8.3 billion including debt, brings the 737 fuselage supplier back under Boeing's direct control. The move is designed to address quality control issues that contributed to production disruptions and gives Boeing greater visibility into its supply chain.

Management has outlined several 2026 priorities:

  • Achieving MAX 7 and MAX 10 certification
  • Increasing 737 and 787 production rates
  • Returning to positive cash flow
  • Integrating Spirit AeroSystems operations

Investment Implications

For investors evaluating Boeing, the 737 MAX certification progress offers both opportunity and continued risk. The aircraft remains central to Boeing's commercial aviation business, and successful certification of the MAX 7 and MAX 10 would significantly expand the company's addressable market.

Airlines operating in constrained airport environments particularly value the MAX 10's larger capacity, while the MAX 7's efficiency appeals to regional operators. Delays in certification have pushed some customers toward Airbus alternatives, making timely approval commercially important.

However, the de-icing issue that has delayed certification remains unresolved, and the FAA has shown no willingness to accelerate the process at the expense of thoroughness. Investors should expect the certification timeline to remain uncertain until Boeing demonstrates the technical fixes satisfy regulatory requirements.

The Competitive Landscape

Airbus continues to outpace Boeing in narrow-body deliveries, having capitalized on Boeing's troubles to capture market share. The European manufacturer has also faced production challenges but has generally maintained more consistent output.

Boeing's ability to ramp 737 production while integrating Spirit AeroSystems and completing MAX 7/10 certification will determine whether the company can regain competitive footing. The alternative—continued delays and production struggles—would further strengthen Airbus's position in the crucial single-aisle market segment.

For now, the January developments suggest Boeing is making genuine progress. Whether that progress translates into certified aircraft and satisfied customers will become clearer as 2026 unfolds.