Boeing's turnaround story gained significant momentum this week as the aerospace giant cleared two critical hurdles: Federal Aviation Administration approval for the next phase of 737 MAX 10 certification testing and a record-breaking order from Alaska Airlines valued at approximately $50 billion.

The FAA Milestone

The FAA has authorized Boeing to proceed to the second and final phase of flight testing for the 737 MAX 10, the largest variant in the MAX family. The approval, granted just before the Christmas holiday, allows testing to expand into additional aircraft systems including avionics and propulsion—the comprehensive validation needed before commercial certification.

This represents a crucial step for a program that has faced repeated delays. The MAX 10 was originally expected to enter service in 2020, but the global grounding of the MAX fleet following two fatal crashes, combined with subsequent quality control issues, pushed certification into 2026.

"We're making steady progress on the MAX 10 certification program. Moving into Phase 2 testing demonstrates our commitment to safety and regulatory compliance."

— Boeing statement

The De-Icing Challenge

Despite the progress, Boeing continues to address a lingering engine de-icing concern that must be resolved before final certification. The issue, which affects how the aircraft handles ice formation on engine components, has been a persistent obstacle in the testing program.

Notably, the FAA has not yet extended similar Phase 2 clearance to the smaller MAX 7, highlighting differentiated timelines within the MAX family. Boeing executives, including CEO Kelly Ortberg, have expressed confidence that both variants will achieve certification in 2026, but the de-icing issue adds uncertainty to that timeline.

Alaska Airlines Makes History

Against this backdrop, Alaska Airlines delivered a powerful vote of confidence in Boeing's future. The carrier announced the largest aircraft order in its 93-year history: 105 firm orders for the 737 MAX 10 with options for 35 additional aircraft.

The deal, announced January 7, represents approximately $50 billion in potential value at list prices. While airlines typically negotiate significant discounts, the order's scale and strategic importance cannot be overstated.

Alaska's commitment to the MAX 10 is particularly significant because the aircraft is optimized for high-density routes—exactly where the carrier sees growth opportunity. The MAX 10 offers approximately 230 seats in a typical configuration, making it well-suited for Alaska's hub-and-spoke network connecting the West Coast to destinations across North America.

The Production Ramp-Up Challenge

Boeing's challenge now shifts from certification to execution. The company has FAA approval to produce 42 737 aircraft per month—a rate it achieved in October 2025—but scaling production while maintaining the quality standards demanded by regulators presents its own challenges.

With approximately 1,290 total orders for the MAX 10 from major carriers including United Airlines (277 units), Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines (108), and now Alaska Airlines (105), Boeing has a substantial backlog to work through. The certification timeline directly impacts when those deliveries can begin.

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary has indicated the low-cost carrier expects MAX 10 deliveries to begin in late 2026 or early 2027, following certification. This timeline aligns with Boeing's public guidance but leaves little room for additional delays.

Investment Implications

For investors, Boeing's progress on MAX certification represents a potential inflection point. The stock has underperformed significantly since the 2019 grounding, weighed down by quality concerns, regulatory scrutiny, and pandemic-related demand destruction.

The Alaska Airlines order demonstrates that customers retain confidence in Boeing's products, despite the manufacturer's well-documented challenges. Certification of the MAX 10 would unlock billions in deferred revenue and potentially restore some of the market share Boeing has ceded to Airbus.

Key metrics to watch include:

  • Monthly production rates: Can Boeing maintain quality while ramping output?
  • Certification timeline: Any additional delays would pressure margins and customer relationships
  • Order book trends: The Alaska deal is encouraging, but sustained demand matters
  • Free cash flow: Boeing needs to generate cash to repair its balance sheet

The Broader Context

Boeing's recovery matters beyond Wall Street. The company remains one of America's largest exporters and a critical component of the domestic aerospace supply chain. A healthy Boeing supports hundreds of thousands of jobs across the country.

The FAA's willingness to advance MAX 10 testing signals regulators are satisfied with Boeing's safety protocols—a necessary precondition for certification but not a guarantee of imminent approval. The relationship between Boeing and the FAA remains more adversarial than in pre-grounding years, with regulators maintaining heightened scrutiny of all Boeing submissions.

For now, the combination of Phase 2 testing approval and Alaska's record order provides Boeing with momentum heading into what promises to be a pivotal year. Whether that momentum translates into certification, deliveries, and restored financial health will determine the next chapter of Boeing's story.