Bitcoin briefly touched $90,200 during Asian trading hours Monday before retreating sharply, underscoring the fragile sentiment that has plagued the cryptocurrency market during the year-end period. By the close of U.S. trading, Bitcoin had fallen back below $88,000, leaving it roughly 30% below the all-time high of nearly $125,000 reached in October.

A Tale of Two Trading Sessions

One of the more notable patterns in recent weeks has been the stark divergence between Asian and U.S. trading sessions. During overnight hours, Bitcoin has generally found buying support, only to see those gains evaporate once American traders come online.

Over the past week, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have declined more than 3% during U.S. hours, with that weakness largely offset by strength during Asian trading. Analysts attribute this pattern primarily to year-end tax-loss harvesting, as American investors book losses to offset gains realized earlier in the year.

"There's very little confidence in Bitcoin right now. The market remains nearly 30% below all-time highs despite record global liquidity, and the year-end selling pressure isn't helping sentiment."

— Crypto market analyst

The Post-Halving Dilemma

Adding to the concern is Bitcoin's unusual performance relative to its historical pattern. The cryptocurrency has never closed a year in the red during a post-halving period—the phase following the quadrennial reduction in Bitcoin's block reward that historically coincides with bull markets.

With just three trading days remaining in 2025, Bitcoin would need to rally 6.24% above its yearly open of $93,374 to maintain this streak. That would require a move to roughly $99,000—a target that seems increasingly ambitious given current momentum.

Technical Picture

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin remains trapped in a range between approximately $86,500 and $90,000. Analysts note that repeated tests of the lower end of this range could weaken support over time, potentially opening the door to a move toward $83,000 or even $80,000.

Elliott wave analyst John Glover offered a more constructive long-term view while acknowledging near-term uncertainty:

"The Bitcoin price chart looks very promising for higher prices in the future, but less certainty in the near term. I expect the market to trade sideways to slightly lower in the coming weeks and months."

— John Glover, Elliott Wave Analyst

Monday's Volatility

Monday's price action demonstrated just how quickly sentiment can shift in crypto markets. The early Asian rally triggered over $102 million in short liquidations as bullish momentum returned, briefly pushing total crypto market capitalization back above $3 trillion. But that enthusiasm faded as the day progressed.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Despite the challenging year-end dynamics, many crypto analysts remain constructive on Bitcoin's medium-term prospects. Several factors could support prices in the new year:

  • Institutional adoption: Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract inflows, with the products amassing tens of billions in assets since their January 2024 launch.
  • Supply dynamics: The April 2024 halving reduced Bitcoin's new supply, a factor that has historically supported prices over 12-18 month periods.
  • Macro tailwinds: Central bank rate cuts throughout 2025 have generally been positive for risk assets, including crypto.
  • Regulatory clarity: The incoming administration has signaled a more crypto-friendly approach to regulation.

Investment Considerations

For investors considering crypto exposure heading into 2026, the current environment offers both opportunities and risks:

  • Volatility remains elevated: Bitcoin's swings of 5-10% in a single day are not unusual and require appropriate position sizing.
  • Tax-loss selling pressure fades: Once the calendar turns to January, the forced selling that has weighed on prices should subside.
  • Correlation with risk assets: Bitcoin continues to trade with significant correlation to tech stocks, limiting its diversification benefits.

Whether Bitcoin can reclaim its all-time highs in 2026 will likely depend on a combination of macro factors, regulatory developments, and the broader appetite for risk assets. For now, the market appears content to consolidate, digesting the massive gains of 2024 before determining its next major move.