Bitcoin crossed $90,000 during U.S. trading hours on Thursday, January 2—and for market technicians watching the cryptocurrency, the timing may be more significant than the price itself. For the first time in weeks, American trading sessions are contributing to gains rather than losses, suggesting a potential shift in institutional sentiment as the new year begins.

The pattern reversal comes after a challenging stretch for Bitcoin holders. The cryptocurrency fell 20% from its November highs during a two-month period when U.S.-listed spot ETFs experienced their worst outflow streak on record. Throughout that decline, a consistent pattern emerged: Asian markets would buy, only for U.S. traders to sell during their sessions.

Thursday's action broke that pattern decisively.

The Session Pattern That Defined Late 2025

To understand why Thursday's gains matter, it's essential to understand the session dynamics that preceded them. During November and December, Bitcoin exhibited a remarkably consistent pattern:

  • Asian session (roughly 7 p.m. to 4 a.m. Eastern): Prices would typically stabilize or edge higher, with buying interest from traders in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Tokyo.
  • European session (roughly 3 a.m. to 11 a.m. Eastern): Modest activity with no clear directional bias.
  • U.S. session (roughly 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern): Consistent selling pressure, often pushing prices to daily lows.

The pattern reflected the behavior of U.S. institutional investors who had embraced Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 but were taking profits or reducing exposure as year-end approached. ETF outflows during this period totaled $4.57 billion—a record for any two-month stretch since the products launched.

What Changed at the Start of 2026

Thursday's session marked a departure from this pattern. Bitcoin rose from approximately $89,500 at the European close to above $90,300 during peak U.S. trading hours—a gain of roughly 1% during what had previously been the weakest part of the trading day.

Several factors may be driving the shift:

  • New year allocation flows: January often brings fresh capital as investors implement new-year portfolio allocations. Some of this capital appears to be finding its way back to Bitcoin.
  • Tax-loss selling exhaustion: Much of December's selling was likely tax-motivated, with investors harvesting losses before year-end. That pressure has now lifted.
  • ETF flow reversal: Early data suggests that Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $180 million on Thursday, a dramatic reversal from the persistent outflows of recent weeks.
  • Technical levels: Bitcoin's ability to hold above $88,000 despite intense selling pressure may have encouraged sidelined buyers to re-enter.

The ETF Indicator

For institutional observers, ETF flows provide the clearest window into U.S. investor sentiment. The reversal from outflows to inflows—if it persists—would signal that the late-2025 correction may be complete.

"ETF net inflows surged to over $300 million early in 2026, with Bitcoin and Ethereum contributing $184 million and $127 million, respectively," according to industry data. The numbers suggest that institutional appetite, while diminished from its 2024 peak, hasn't disappeared.

The Sentiment Puzzle

Interestingly, while prices have stabilized, sentiment remains cautious. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index—a popular gauge of market psychology—sits at 34, firmly in "fear" territory. This contrasts with the index readings above 70 that accompanied Bitcoin's push toward $100,000 in late 2024.

The disconnect between price and sentiment could be interpreted in two ways:

  • Bullish interpretation: Fearful sentiment creates buying opportunities. If investors are scared despite relatively stable prices, there's room for sentiment to improve, potentially driving further gains.
  • Bearish interpretation: Prices are being supported by a narrow group of buyers while broader interest has waned. If those buyers step back, prices could resume their decline.

What Technical Analysts Are Watching

Several technical indicators are drawing attention from chart-focused traders:

  • Bollinger Band squeeze: Bitcoin's trading range has compressed significantly, a pattern that often precedes major moves. The direction of the breakout remains unclear, but volatility is likely coming.
  • Support at $88,000: This level, which roughly corresponds to the cost basis for many 2024 ETF buyers, has held despite multiple tests.
  • Resistance at $100,000: The psychological barrier that Bitcoin failed to breach in late 2024 remains the key upside target. A decisive break above this level could trigger significant momentum buying.

What It Means for Investors

Thursday's session-pattern reversal is a single data point, not a confirmed trend change. However, it provides the first concrete evidence that the selling pressure that defined late 2025 may be abating.

For Bitcoin investors, several considerations apply:

  • Patience over panic: The worst of the selling may be behind, but a return to all-time highs isn't guaranteed. Measured position-building makes more sense than aggressive buying.
  • Watch the ETFs: Continued inflows would confirm that institutional sentiment is shifting. Renewed outflows would suggest Thursday was an anomaly.
  • Prepare for volatility: The technical setup suggests a significant move is coming. Position sizing should reflect that uncertainty.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin's reclaiming of $90,000 during U.S. trading hours represents the first meaningful break from the pattern that defined its late-2025 decline. While one session doesn't make a trend, the shift in U.S. investor behavior—from sellers to buyers—deserves attention. If the pattern persists, it could signal that Bitcoin's correction is complete and a new uptrend is beginning. If it doesn't, the cautious sentiment reflected in fear gauges may prove prescient.