Bitcoin has found its floor. That's the verdict from Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani and his team, who wrote this week that "with reasonable confidence bitcoin and broader digital asset markets have bottomed," pointing to the late-November decline to $80,000 as the cycle low. The call arrives as Bitcoin stabilizes around $91,000, consolidating after months of volatility that tested investor conviction.

The Case for $150,000

Bernstein is maintaining its forecast that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 in 2026 and $200,000 in 2027—targets that imply roughly 65% upside from current levels. The firm's thesis rests on several converging factors: institutional adoption accelerating through exchange-traded funds, regulatory clarity materializing in multiple jurisdictions, and the structural supply constraints created by Bitcoin's halving cycles.

The current tight trading range, Chhugani notes, closely mirrors the April 2025 consolidation that preceded Bitcoin's record run above $126,000. Technical analysts call this pattern "time-based capitulation"—a period where neither buyers nor sellers can establish dominance, building pressure that eventually resolves with a decisive directional move.

"The pattern we're seeing now is remarkably similar to what preceded the 2025 surge. Patient holders have absorbed selling pressure from forced liquidations and profit-taking, setting the stage for the next leg higher."

— Gautam Chhugani, Bernstein Analyst

What Drove the Q4 Selloff

Bitcoin's fourth-quarter decline reflected a confluence of factors that shook out weaker hands without fundamentally damaging the bull case. Forced liquidations cascaded through leveraged positions as prices broke below key technical levels, triggering margin calls that compounded selling pressure.

Long-term holders—investors who had accumulated Bitcoin at much lower prices—took the opportunity to realize gains, contributing to the largest sustained selling pressure since the 2023 bear market. This profit-taking, while painful for recent buyers, represents healthy rotation that typically precedes sustainable advances.

The decline from October highs exceeded 35% at its worst, testing the conviction of investors who had grown accustomed to relentless appreciation. Such corrections are historically normal within Bitcoin's volatile secular uptrends, though they never feel normal when portfolios are bleeding.

ETF Flows Turn Positive

After several weeks of net outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs have begun attracting capital again. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund—the two largest products—have reported consecutive days of positive flows, suggesting institutional investors are using the pullback to build positions.

BlackRock has publicly predicted that 2026 will be "the year retail investors finally embrace Bitcoin," pointing to growing awareness of ETF products that eliminate the custody and security complications of direct ownership. If that prediction proves accurate, demand from mainstream investors could absorb significant selling pressure while pushing prices toward Bernstein's targets.

The ETF infrastructure that now exists represents a fundamental change from previous crypto cycles. Traditional financial advisors can now allocate client portfolios to Bitcoin through familiar brokerage platforms, removing friction that previously limited participation to crypto-native investors willing to navigate exchanges and wallets.

Regulatory Catalysts Ahead

The Crypto Clarity Act, expected to advance through Congress in early 2026, would establish the regulatory framework that institutional investors have demanded as a prerequisite for larger allocations. The legislation seeks to clarify whether various digital assets qualify as securities or commodities—a distinction that determines which agency oversees trading and which rules apply.

International developments are equally important. South Korea plans to allow trading of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2026 while tightening stablecoin regulations, opening one of the world's most active crypto trading markets to institutional-grade products. European and Asian regulatory frameworks are similarly maturing, reducing the jurisdictional arbitrage that has characterized crypto markets.

"Regulation has been a persistent overhang; resolution here would be a meaningful catalyst."

— James Butterfill, CoinShares

XRP's Breakout Moment

Beyond Bitcoin, XRP (Ripple) has emerged as a standout performer following resolution of its long-running SEC conflict and the launch of spot XRP ETFs in late 2025. The token's price increased more than 8% in early 2026, briefly surpassing Binance Coin to claim the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

The XRP situation illustrates how regulatory clarity can unlock value. For years, uncertainty over the token's legal status suppressed institutional interest despite Ripple's extensive partnerships with financial institutions for cross-border payments. With that uncertainty lifted, capital is flowing into a asset that had been essentially uninvestable for compliance-conscious institutions.

Price Prediction Ranges

Not all analysts share Bernstein's bullish conviction. Carol Alexander, professor of finance at the University of Sussex, expects Bitcoin to remain in a "high-volatility range" between $75,000 and $150,000, with "the center of gravity around $110,000." This more cautious view acknowledges both the upside potential and the possibility that current prices already reflect much of the positive catalysts.

The dispersion in forecasts—ranging from $75,000 on the low end to $225,000 on the high end—reflects fundamental uncertainty about how rapidly institutional adoption will proceed and how much premium investors will pay for Bitcoin's scarcity characteristics.

What Investors Should Consider

For investors weighing Bitcoin exposure, the current consolidation offers both opportunity and risk. Bernstein's bottom call, if correct, suggests an attractive entry point before the next leg higher. But bottom calls are inherently uncertain, and further downside remains possible if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate or regulatory progress stalls.

Position sizing matters more than timing for volatile assets like Bitcoin. Even believers in the long-term thesis should ensure allocations remain small enough that maximum drawdown scenarios don't force panic selling at the worst possible moment.

The ETF products now available make gradual accumulation straightforward—dollar-cost averaging into positions over months rather than making concentrated bets on precise timing. This approach won't maximize returns if Bernstein's bull case plays out immediately, but it provides protection against the possibility that the bottom hasn't actually arrived.

What's clear is that crypto has entered a new phase of its evolution. The infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and institutional acceptance that seemed aspirational just two years ago are now materializing. Whether that translates to $150,000 Bitcoin remains to be seen—but the path is more visible than it's ever been.