Wall Street's most important earnings week of the quarter arrives Tuesday when JPMorgan Chase kicks off the banking sector's Q4 2025 reports. Over the following three days, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley will reveal how America's largest financial institutions closed out 2025—and provide crucial guidance for 2026.

For investors, the bank earnings carry significance beyond the sector itself. Banks sit at the nexus of consumer health, corporate activity, and capital markets. Their results provide real-time insight into lending demand, credit quality, and deal-making activity that inform expectations for the broader economy.

The Week's Schedule

  • Tuesday, January 13: JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Delta Air Lines (DAL)
  • Wednesday, January 14: Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C)
  • Thursday, January 15: Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), BlackRock (BLK)

The concentration of reports creates potential for significant sector-wide moves. A strong or weak tone from JPMorgan on Tuesday will likely affect how the market receives Wednesday's results from the other major banks.

What Analysts Expect

Consensus estimates suggest a strong quarter for the banking sector, driven by investment banking recovery and relatively stable credit quality:

JPMorgan Chase

Analysts expect earnings per share of approximately $4.93-5.01, with revenue growth driven by continued strength in investment banking and trading. The market will focus on CEO Jamie Dimon's commentary about the economic outlook and any signals about expense management, which pressured the stock in late 2025.

Wells Fargo

This quarter holds special significance for Wells Fargo—it's the first full quarter since the Federal Reserve removed the bank's $1.95 trillion asset cap in June 2025. Analysts project a 17.5% rise in earnings per share, fueled by higher net interest income and improved investment banking performance. The bank's $40 billion share repurchase authorization signals management's confidence in the growth trajectory.

"Wells Fargo is entering 2026 as a fundamentally different company than it was a year ago. The asset cap removal opens growth avenues that have been closed for seven years. The question is how aggressively they'll pursue them."

— Jason Goldberg, Banking Analyst at Barclays

Bank of America

BofA faces tougher comparisons but should benefit from improving net interest margins as asset yields reset higher. Watch for commentary on deposit trends and any impact from the company's significant CRE exposure.

Citigroup

Analysts see Citigroup's EPS surging 32% on gains in capital markets activity. CEO Jane Fraser's ongoing transformation efforts will be scrutinized—can she demonstrate progress on the turnaround while delivering short-term results?

Key Themes to Watch

Investment Banking Recovery

After two challenging years, investment banking is roaring back. Global investment banking revenue rose 15% in 2025 to nearly $103 billion—the second-highest since 2021. M&A activity surged to $5.1 trillion, up 42% from 2024. Banks with strong advisory and underwriting franchises should benefit significantly.

JPMorgan led the league tables, but all major banks participated in the recovery. Commentary about deal pipelines and activity levels will inform expectations for 2026.

Net Interest Income Trajectory

After benefiting from rising rates in 2022-2024, banks face a different environment. The Federal Reserve has cut rates three times from the 2024 peak, with the benchmark now at 3.5-3.75%. How this affects net interest income—the core of bank profitability—will be closely monitored.

Deposit costs are a key variable. If banks can retain deposits without paying up significantly as rates decline, NII could remain resilient. If competition forces deposit rate increases, margins compress.

Credit Quality

Consumer credit metrics have shown some deterioration—credit card delinquencies have risen modestly from pandemic lows. Any acceleration in credit losses would be concerning, though most analysts expect manageable levels.

Commercial real estate remains the wildcard. Office property values continue declining in many markets, and some regional banks have faced significant CRE-related losses. The large money center banks have less concentrated CRE exposure but aren't immune to sector stress.

2026 Expense Guidance

In the short term, the market will focus intensely on 2026 expense guidance. Technology investments, regulatory compliance costs, and competitive compensation pressures have pushed bank expenses higher. Any signals that cost growth is accelerating could pressure stocks even if revenue results are strong.

JPMorgan's stock faced pressure in late 2025 specifically due to expense concerns. How management addresses this topic will be significant.

The Wells Fargo Transformation Story

Wells Fargo deserves special attention this quarter. The bank's seven-year saga under the Federal Reserve's asset cap—imposed following the fake accounts scandal—finally ended in June 2025. The removal allows Wells Fargo to pursue growth for the first time since 2018.

Key developments since the cap removal:

  • Return targets raised: Management increased the medium-term return on tangible common equity target to 17-18%, up from 15%.
  • Capital return: The $40 billion buyback authorization represents one of the largest in banking history.
  • Growth investments: The bank is expanding in wealth management, investment banking, and commercial lending—areas constrained under the cap.

This quarter's results will provide the first comprehensive look at Wells Fargo's post-cap performance and strategy. CEO Charlie Scharf's commentary about growth opportunities and competitive positioning will be closely parsed.

Analyst Sentiment Heading In

Not all analysts are bullish. Wolfe Research downgraded both JPMorgan and Bank of America ahead of earnings, citing limited upside at current valuations. The analysts argue that strong results are already priced in and that any disappointment—particularly on expenses—could trigger selling.

Conversely, bulls point to the investment banking recovery, resilient consumer activity, and potential for continued rate cuts to support the sector. The debate will be settled by the results themselves.

How to Position

For investors considering bank stocks, several approaches make sense:

Diversified Financial Exposure

Rather than betting on individual banks, financial sector ETFs like XLF or KBE provide diversified exposure to the theme without single-stock concentration risk.

Quality Focus

Among individual banks, JPMorgan's diversified business model and consistent execution make it the lower-risk choice. Wells Fargo offers more upside potential but with higher execution risk on the post-cap transformation.

Wait for Results

Given the concentration of reports and potential for significant moves, waiting until Thursday to assess the full picture before adjusting positions may be prudent.

Bank earnings season is always eventful, but 2026's kickoff carries particular significance. The results will reveal not just how banks performed in Q4, but how positioned they are for a year that promises both opportunities and challenges. Tuesday morning, the answers begin arriving.