Americans' Job Finding Expectations Hit Record Low: Inside the Fed Survey That's Alarming Economists

A remarkable contradiction is emerging in the American labor market. While the unemployment rate sits at a historically low 4.4% and employers continue to add jobs each month, American workers have never been more pessimistic about their ability to find new employment. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, job finding expectations have plunged to their lowest level since the survey began.

The December 2025 survey, released January 8, 2026, shows this is the second time in just six months that job finding expectations have hit a series low—a troubling pattern that suggests something fundamental has shifted in how Americans perceive the labor market, regardless of what official statistics show.

The Survey Results

The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations polls approximately 1,300 household heads each month about their economic outlook, covering inflation expectations, spending plans, and crucially, labor market perceptions.

December's results revealed several concerning trends:

• Job finding expectations declined to a record low, marking the second series low in six months
• Job loss expectations also worsened, suggesting increased anxiety about current employment stability
• Delinquency expectations rose to their highest level since the onset of the pandemic in 2020
• One-year inflation expectations increased to 3.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from November

"What we're seeing in the survey data is a profound disconnect between how the labor market looks on paper and how American workers actually experience it. People don't feel secure, even when aggregate statistics say they should."

— Labor market research analysis

The Paradox Explained

How can job finding expectations be at record lows when unemployment remains near historic lows? Several factors help explain this apparent contradiction:

The Quality of Available Jobs

While jobs remain plentiful in aggregate, the types of positions available have shifted. Many open positions are in lower-wage service sectors, offer fewer hours than workers want, or lack the benefits and stability that characterized employment in previous decades.

For a worker laid off from a well-paying corporate job, the existence of open positions at Amazon warehouses or fast food restaurants doesn't translate to genuine employment opportunity. The jobs may exist, but they represent a significant step down.

The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Market

Despite low unemployment, the current labor market is characterized by unusually low churn. Job openings have declined to 18-month lows, meaning fewer opportunities for workers to switch positions or advance their careers. Employers are holding onto existing workers but hesitant to hire new ones.

This creates a market where those currently employed feel relatively secure, but anyone who loses their job faces a much more challenging search than headline statistics suggest.

Sectoral Concentration of Pain

Job losses have been concentrated in specific sectors—technology, media, financial services—that tend to have higher-educated, higher-income workers who are more likely to respond to surveys and shape public narratives about the job market.

The January layoff wave has seen over 100 companies file WARN notices, predominantly in these white-collar sectors. For workers in these industries, the job market feels considerably worse than aggregate statistics indicate.

Rising Delinquency Expectations

Perhaps most alarming is the survey's finding that delinquency expectations—the perceived likelihood of missing debt payments in the next three months—have climbed to their highest level since the pandemic's onset in March 2020.

This metric often serves as a leading indicator of consumer financial stress. When households expect to miss payments, they typically reduce discretionary spending, potentially creating a self-fulfilling cycle of economic weakness.

"Delinquency expectations are a canary in the coal mine for consumer spending. When people think they might miss a payment, they've already stopped buying discretionary items. That feeds through to the broader economy."

— Economic forecasting research

Inflation Expectations Tick Higher

Adding to consumer unease, one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% in December, up from 3.2% in November. This increase came despite actual inflation continuing to moderate, suggesting that consumers' lived experience of prices may differ significantly from official statistics.

Medium-term (three-year) and longer-term (five-year) inflation expectations remained stable, indicating that consumers view the recent uptick as temporary rather than signaling a renewed inflationary surge.

Implications for the Federal Reserve

The survey results complicate the Federal Reserve's policy calculus. On one hand, falling inflation and stable employment suggest the economy is achieving the elusive "soft landing" that policymakers targeted. On the other hand, consumer pessimism about job prospects could become self-fulfilling if it leads to reduced spending.

The Fed currently expects to hold rates steady at its January 27-28 meeting, with markets pricing in no cuts until June at the earliest. But if consumer sentiment continues to deteriorate, policymakers may face pressure to act sooner.

What Workers Should Know

For individual workers navigating this contradictory landscape, several practical implications emerge:

• Job searching takes longer: Even with low unemployment, the "low-hire" environment means finding new positions requires more patience and effort
• Networking matters more: With fewer open positions, personal connections become increasingly important for accessing opportunities
• Skills upgrading is valuable: Workers who invest in in-demand skills face better prospects than those relying solely on experience
• Financial cushions are essential: Given the extended job search times, emergency savings have become more important than ever

The Broader Economic Picture

The divergence between labor market statistics and consumer sentiment reflects a broader theme of the post-pandemic economy: traditional metrics may not fully capture how Americans are actually experiencing economic conditions.

GDP growth remains positive. Unemployment is low. Wage gains have outpaced inflation for over a year. Yet consumer sentiment remains depressed, savings rates have plummeted, and now job finding expectations have hit record lows.

This disconnect suggests that either consumer sentiment will eventually catch up to improving fundamentals, or the fundamentals themselves contain weaknesses that traditional statistics are failing to capture. History suggests the truth likely lies somewhere in between.

The Bottom Line

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's December survey paints a picture of an American workforce that feels more vulnerable than at any point in the survey's history—even as official unemployment remains near record lows. Job finding expectations at series lows, rising delinquency concerns, and elevated inflation expectations all point to a consumer base that remains deeply anxious about economic conditions.

Whether this pessimism reflects reality or merely perception will become clearer in the months ahead. But for policymakers, employers, and workers alike, the message from American households is clear: despite what the headlines say, the labor market doesn't feel strong.

This disconnect between data and lived experience may be the defining economic story of 2026—and resolving it will require understanding not just what the numbers show, but why so many Americans feel the numbers don't apply to them.