American Express is set to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results this morning, providing investors with a critical window into the spending habits of America's most affluent consumers. As the credit card giant releases earnings at 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time, followed by a conference call at 8:30 a.m., all eyes will be on whether the company's premium customer base continues to defy broader economic anxiety.

Analysts expect American Express to report earnings per share of $3.55, representing a modest improvement from the $3.49 reported in the same quarter last year. Revenue is projected to reach $18.93 billion, a 10.2% year-over-year increase that would underscore the company's ability to grow even as consumer sentiment has deteriorated sharply.

The K-Shaped Economy in Action

American Express occupies a unique position in the financial services landscape. Unlike competitors that serve a broad swath of consumers, Amex has built its business around affluent cardholders who pay annual fees for premium services and rewards. This focus has proven remarkably resilient as the U.S. economy has bifurcated into what economists describe as a "K-shaped" recovery.

Research from the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank shows that the top 20% of earners now account for a record-breaking 57% of consumer spending. This concentration of purchasing power among the wealthy has been a tailwind for American Express, whose cardholders skew heavily toward this demographic.

"American Express has essentially built a moat around the consumer segment that's actually doing well in this economy. While mass-market lenders worry about delinquencies, Amex is focused on customers who are still traveling, dining out, and living their best lives."

— Financial services analyst

Key Metrics to Watch

Beyond the headline earnings and revenue figures, several metrics will command investor attention:

Billed Business Growth: This measure of total spending on American Express cards serves as a real-time gauge of consumer behavior among affluent households. Analysts expect continued strength in travel and entertainment spending.

Card Member Loans: The company's credit portfolio quality will be scrutinized for any signs of stress. While American Express has historically maintained lower delinquency rates than competitors, a deteriorating credit environment could eventually affect even premium cardholders.

Net Interest Income: With the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, American Express continues to benefit from the spread between what it pays depositors and what it charges borrowers. However, the company's relatively modest lending business means this is less critical than for traditional banks.

Warren Buffett's Favorite Card

American Express holds a special place in the portfolio of legendary investor Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway owns approximately 21% of the company. Buffett's continued confidence in the stock—he hasn't sold a single share despite the position growing to become one of his largest holdings—has provided a floor of support for the shares.

The Oracle of Omaha has long praised American Express for its "network effect" and brand strength. Unlike Visa and Mastercard, which operate payment networks used by banks that issue cards, American Express issues its own cards, operates its own network, and in many cases provides its own lending. This vertical integration allows the company to capture economics at multiple points in each transaction.

Competitive Positioning

American Express faces an evolving competitive landscape:

  • Chase Sapphire: JPMorgan's premium card line has become a formidable competitor for younger affluent consumers
  • Capital One Venture: The company has been aggressive in pursuing premium cardholders with enhanced rewards
  • Apple Card: While not directly competitive on rewards, Apple's card partnership with Goldman Sachs represents a new distribution channel for premium financial services

American Express has responded by continuously enhancing its rewards programs and adding new benefits. The company's Centurion Lounges at airports have become a particularly effective tool for acquiring and retaining premium cardholders.

2026 Outlook

Investors will be particularly focused on management's guidance for 2026. The company faces several potential headwinds:

Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell 9.7 points in January to 84.5, its lowest level in a decade. While affluent consumers have been insulated from much of the economic anxiety, a sustained decline in confidence could eventually affect spending patterns.

Regulatory Environment: Credit card companies face potential regulatory action on interchange fees and late fee structures. American Express's unique business model provides some insulation from interchange regulation, but any broader crackdown on credit card practices could affect the industry.

Interest Rate Trajectory: While the Fed held rates steady this week, markets expect two rate cuts in 2026. Lower rates would reduce American Express's net interest income but could stimulate consumer spending.

Stock Performance

American Express shares have risen 10.5% since the company's last earnings release, outpacing the broader market. The stock trades at approximately 18 times forward earnings, a premium to the S&P 500 but a discount to payment processing peers like Visa and Mastercard.

Analysts covering the company have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting they expect American Express to meet expectations without significant surprises. The consensus rating sits at "Hold," with some analysts arguing that the stock's premium valuation already reflects its defensive characteristics.

For investors seeking exposure to the resilient spending of America's wealthiest consumers, American Express offers a relatively pure play. The company's ability to maintain growth amid deteriorating consumer sentiment elsewhere in the economy speaks to the durability of its premium-focused business model—and the increasingly bifurcated nature of the American economy.