American Express will report its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Friday, January 30, offering investors a crucial window into the spending habits of America's most affluent consumers. In an economy increasingly described as "K-shaped," AmEx's results serve as a barometer for how the upper tier is faring while others struggle.

What Wall Street Expects

Analysts project American Express will report earnings per share of approximately $4.04 for the fourth quarter, which would represent a 15% increase from the same period last year. For full-year 2025, the consensus estimate stands at $15.41 per share, marking a 15.4% improvement over 2024's $13.35.

Revenue is expected to continue its steady climb, with analysts modeling fourth-quarter sales north of $18 billion. The company's trailing twelve-month revenue has already reached $70.42 billion, reflecting consistent growth in card member spending and fee income.

"AmEx has become a proxy for the health of the affluent consumer," said Jennifer Walsh, financial services analyst at Baird. "When Platinum and Gold card holders are spending freely, it tells us something important about confidence at the upper end of the income spectrum."

The Platinum Card Refresh Paying Dividends

One of the key storylines heading into earnings is the continued success of the refreshed U.S. Platinum Card lineup. In the third quarter, new account acquisitions doubled compared to pre-refresh levels, suggesting strong demand for premium credit products despite their elevated annual fees.

The Platinum Card's annual fee now sits at $695, yet consumers appear willing to pay for the combination of travel benefits, airport lounge access, and concierge services the card provides. For AmEx, higher fees translate directly to non-interest revenue, a particularly valuable income stream in a potentially declining rate environment.

"Card Member spending growth accelerated in the third quarter, and we saw strong early demand for our refreshed U.S. Platinum Cards. Our premium customer base continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience."

— American Express, Q3 2025 Earnings Commentary

Credit Quality: The Canary in the Coal Mine

While spending trends grab headlines, credit quality metrics will draw intense scrutiny from analysts concerned about potential cracks in consumer financial health. AmEx's most recent data showed steady delinquencies even as charge-offs ticked higher—a pattern worth monitoring.

The company's focus on premium customers provides some insulation from the credit deterioration hitting subprime lenders. AmEx cardholders tend to have higher incomes, more substantial savings, and greater ability to weather economic volatility. However, no institution is entirely immune to a broader downturn.

"The question is whether the affluent consumer remains truly affluent, or whether we're seeing wealth effects from a strong stock market and high home values masking underlying stress," noted David Park, credit analyst at Moody's Analytics. "AmEx's delinquency and charge-off trends will help answer that question."

The K-Shaped Economy in Focus

AmEx's results arrive amid growing recognition that America's post-pandemic economy has bifurcated into two distinct experiences. The upper half—buoyed by stock market gains, rising home values, and continued wage growth in professional sectors—continues to spend robustly. The lower half faces persistent inflation in necessities like food and energy, sticky at 2.7%, while wage gains have been more modest.

November's retail sales data illustrated this divide clearly. Overall spending rose 0.6% month-over-month, yet consumer confidence surveys remain near Great Recession lows. Americans are spending even as they express deep dissatisfaction with economic conditions—a paradox that suggests different income groups are living in fundamentally different economic realities.

For American Express, this dynamic cuts both ways. The company's premium positioning shields it from the most price-sensitive consumers but makes it a high-stakes bet on the continued prosperity of the top income quintile.

Guidance Will Be Key

Beyond the quarterly numbers, investors will focus intensely on management's outlook for 2026. The company raised its 2025 guidance last quarter, projecting EPS of $15.20 to $15.50 and revenue growth of 9% to 10%. Any update to these figures—particularly around spending trends and credit expectations—could move the stock significantly.

American Express shares have already outperformed substantially, rising 27.5% over the past year versus 16% for the S&P 500 and 14% for the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund. That premium valuation reflects confidence in the company's execution but also raises the bar for what constitutes a satisfactory report.

What to Watch on January 30

When American Express reports before the market opens on January 30, several metrics will warrant particular attention:

  • Billings growth: The total dollar volume charged on AmEx cards, a direct measure of customer spending
  • Net card fee revenue: How much AmEx is earning from annual fees on premium products
  • Provision for credit losses: Whether the company is setting aside more reserves for potential defaults
  • New account growth: Continued momentum in Platinum and Gold card acquisitions
  • International performance: How spending trends differ across geographic regions

The company's conference call, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern, will provide additional color on management's view of the consumer and the competitive landscape in premium credit cards.

For investors trying to gauge whether America's economic expansion can continue into its fourth year, American Express offers a unique lens. If the affluent are still spending freely, the consumption engine that drives two-thirds of U.S. GDP may have more fuel in the tank than skeptics believe.