The American labor market faces a sobering reality as 2026 unfolds: nearly two-thirds of companies are planning layoffs this year, according to a comprehensive new survey that underscores the fragility beneath the surface of recent economic gains.

The findings, released by Resume.org, reveal that 58% of companies describe layoffs as "very likely" or "somewhat likely" in 2026, with an additional wave of cost-cutting measures already underway at firms across virtually every sector of the economy.

The Forces Driving the Layoff Wave

The survey identifies two primary catalysts behind employers' grim outlook: tariff and trade policy concerns, cited by 48% of respondents, and broader economic uncertainty, mentioned by 47% of companies planning reductions.

These anxieties aren't theoretical. After the historically high layoff announcements of 2025—when employers disclosed more than 1.2 million job cuts, up 58% from the previous year—the momentum appears to be carrying directly into the new year.

"Every sector is at risk for layoffs in 2026. Unemployment is rising and job growth is slowing broadly across sectors."

— Aaron Sojourner, Senior Researcher, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research

More than 100 companies have already filed Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) notices indicating plans to reduce staff in January alone, including major retailers like H&M Fashion USA and Nike Retail Services.

AI Emerges as a Hidden Driver

While macroeconomic factors dominate the headlines, artificial intelligence is quietly reshaping workforce planning in ways that extend beyond the tech sector.

The survey reveals a striking statistic: by the end of 2026, 37% of companies plan to replace specific roles with AI technology. Perhaps more concerning for workers, 46% of employers identify a lack of AI-related skills as a primary reason for targeting individuals during layoffs.

This suggests that the current wave of workforce reductions isn't merely cyclical cost-cutting—it represents a structural transformation in how American companies think about human capital versus technological alternatives.

Hiring Freezes Compound the Problem

For workers who do lose their positions, the job market that awaits them appears increasingly challenging. The survey found that nearly half of companies are simultaneously pulling back on hiring:

  • 9% of companies have implemented complete hiring freezes
  • 41% of companies report "cutting back on hiring"
  • 63% of those cutting back cite economic uncertainty as the primary driver

This combination of active layoffs and reduced hiring creates what economists describe as a "squeeze effect"—fewer opportunities for displaced workers while the pool of job seekers expands.

The 2025 Precedent

Context matters when interpreting these numbers. The 2025 layoff figures—1.2 million announced cuts—represented the highest level since the COVID-induced chaos of 2020, when approximately 2.3 million cuts were disclosed.

That comparison is both reassuring and concerning. While 2026's outlook doesn't approach pandemic-era devastation, the trend line suggests the labor market is deteriorating rather than improving, even as headline unemployment numbers remain historically moderate.

What It Means for Workers

For American workers navigating this environment, the survey findings point toward several practical considerations:

Skill development has never been more critical. With nearly half of employers citing AI skill gaps as a layoff criterion, workers who can demonstrate proficiency with emerging technologies may find themselves better positioned during restructurings.

Industry diversification matters. While the survey found "every sector at risk," some industries face more acute pressures than others. Workers in retail, technology, and manufacturing face particularly elevated uncertainty.

Financial buffers become essential. With hiring slowing across the board, the job search process for displaced workers may take longer than in recent years, making emergency savings more important than ever.

The Policy Dimension

The prominence of tariff and trade concerns in the survey results connects directly to ongoing policy debates in Washington. With new trade restrictions under consideration and existing tariffs still working through the economy, business planning remains complicated by regulatory uncertainty.

This uncertainty, business leaders argue, makes it rational to reduce fixed costs—including labor—rather than expand during periods when the rules of commerce may shift unpredictably.

Looking Ahead

The Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting this week takes on additional significance in light of these survey findings. While the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, any signals about the trajectory of monetary policy could influence how aggressively companies pursue workforce reductions.

For now, the message from corporate America is clear: hope for the best, but prepare for a challenging year. The 60% of companies anticipating layoffs represent a substantial warning sign that the labor market's long period of relative strength may be entering a new, more difficult phase.

Workers, job seekers, and policymakers alike would be wise to take these signals seriously as 2026 unfolds.