For decades, 3M was considered a bellwether for the American economy. The diversified industrial company—maker of everything from Post-it Notes to surgical supplies to automotive components—touched so many sectors that its results offered a real-time read on business conditions nationwide.

Recent years have been challenging. Legal settlements related to PFAS "forever chemicals" and combat earplugs, combined with operational missteps and economic headwinds, battered the stock. Shares that once traded above $250 fell below $90 at their lows.

But 3M has been fighting its way back. When the company reports Q4 2025 results before the market opens Monday, January 20, investors will assess whether the recovery is gaining momentum—and what it signals for industrial activity more broadly.

What the Street Expects

Consensus estimates for Q4 2025:

  • Earnings per share: $1.82 (vs. $1.68 in Q4 2024, +8.3%)
  • Revenue: $6.08 billion (vs. $5.81 billion, +4.6%)
  • Full-year 2025 EPS: $7.95-$8.05 (company guidance)
  • Adjusted operating margin expansion: 180-200 basis points year-over-year

The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 4.8%. Analysts have revised Q4 estimates down slightly over the past 60 days (0.5% decline), suggesting modest caution heading into the report.

The Business Segments

3M reports through several segments, each providing insight into different economic sectors:

Safety and Industrial

3M's largest segment includes personal protective equipment, industrial tapes and adhesives, abrasives, and electrical products. This segment is expected to perform well in Q4, driven by:

  • Strength in personal safety products
  • Industrial specialties demand from manufacturing customers
  • Abrasives used in metalworking and fabrication
  • Electrical products for power infrastructure

The health of this segment reflects broader industrial production trends. December's industrial production rose 0.1%, suggesting modest but positive manufacturing activity.

Transportation and Electronics

This segment serves automotive, aerospace, electronics, and commercial branding markets. Key dynamics include:

  • Positive: Electronics demand remains solid, supported by data center buildout and consumer device cycles
  • Positive: Aerospace and defense spending continues to grow
  • Mixed: Automotive production has stabilized but isn't booming
  • Negative: Advanced materials business has been weak

The advanced materials weakness—related to lower demand from certain industrial applications—may partially offset strength elsewhere.

Consumer

3M's consumer business includes Post-it Notes, Scotch tape, Command hooks, and other retail products. Consumer segment performance tracks broader retail spending trends, which have been resilient but slowing.

Health Care

The company spun off its health care business (now called Solventum) in April 2024, so this is no longer a major contributor to 3M's results. However, residual transition items may affect comparisons.

The Legal Overhang

3M's recovery has been complicated by massive legal liabilities:

PFAS Settlements

The company agreed to pay up to $10.3 billion over 13 years to settle claims related to PFAS contamination in public water systems. While the settlement provides certainty, the ongoing payments affect cash flow and capital allocation.

Combat Earplug Litigation

3M reached a $6 billion settlement to resolve claims that its military earplugs were defective. Like the PFAS settlement, this removes uncertainty but requires significant cash outlays.

Together, these settlements total over $16 billion—a substantial burden even for a company of 3M's size. Management's ability to service these obligations while investing in growth and returning capital to shareholders will be a focus for investors.

The Turnaround Thesis

Bulls argue 3M is positioned for a sustained recovery based on:

Cost Restructuring

The company has aggressively cut costs, targeting $700-$900 million in savings. These actions, while painful, are expected to meaningfully improve margins over the next two years.

Portfolio Simplification

Spinning off the health care business and exiting underperforming product lines has created a more focused industrial company. This simplification should improve operational efficiency and strategic clarity.

Innovation Pipeline

Despite recent challenges, 3M maintains a substantial R&D budget and a track record of product innovation. New products in areas like automotive electronics, renewable energy components, and advanced materials could drive growth.

Valuation

After years of underperformance, 3M trades at a meaningful discount to historical multiples and industrial peers. If the turnaround succeeds, valuation expansion could amplify earnings growth.

Bear Case Considerations

Skeptics point to ongoing risks:

  • Economic sensitivity: Industrial companies suffer disproportionately in recessions
  • Tariff exposure: New tariffs on imported materials could raise input costs
  • Legacy liabilities: Additional legal or environmental claims could emerge
  • Execution risk: Turnarounds often take longer and cost more than expected
  • Competition: Focused competitors may outperform a conglomerate in specific categories

What Industrial Data Tells Us

3M's results should align with recent industrial indicators:

  • December industrial production: +0.1% (manufacturing showing stabilization)
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI: Hovering near 50, indicating neither expansion nor contraction
  • Durable goods orders: Positive but volatile
  • Capital spending: Strong in AI-related infrastructure, mixed elsewhere

The manufacturing sector hasn't fully recovered from post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and interest rate headwinds, but it's no longer in decline. 3M's results will help clarify whether stability is turning into growth.

What Investors Should Watch Monday

When 3M reports before the market opens January 20:

  • Organic revenue growth: Is underlying demand accelerating?
  • Margin trajectory: Are cost savings translating to improved profitability?
  • Segment performance: Which end markets are strongest and weakest?
  • 2026 guidance: What does management see for the year ahead?
  • Capital allocation: How is the company balancing legal payments, investment, and shareholder returns?
  • Order trends: Are customers building or depleting inventory?

The Bigger Picture

Beyond 3M's specific situation, the company's results offer insight into the industrial economy at a pivotal moment. With questions about tariff impacts, manufacturing reshoring, and infrastructure spending all in play, industrial bellwethers provide valuable data points.

For 3M specifically, Q4 represents another step in a multi-year recovery journey. The company that once seemed like a permanent fixture in conservative portfolios now must prove it can regain that status. Monday's results won't provide a definitive verdict, but they'll show whether the path to redemption remains on track.